I did a similar article for the 2020 season alongside Janice for our University magazine, and most of it would end up being redundant due to the impact of the pandemic. With an entire season of enhanced health protocols under their belts, F1 should be able to conduct the season without much further interruption. In Part 3 of the F1 2021 Season Preview, I take a look at six potentially season-defining storylines to look out for:
1) Will Lewis make it a record-breaking 8th World Championship?
In spite of a reduced calendar, 2020 was Lewis’ most dominant Championship win to date. The 7-time World Champion won 11 of the 16 races he contested, and extended his streak of points finishes to a whopping 49 races. Even on his off days, Lewis still scored points where it mattered, which can’t be said for the other side of the Mercedes garage.
Last week’s pre-season test didn’t particularly go to plan for Mercedes, gearbox issues curtailed Bottas’ first-day stint whilst Lewis lost a chunk of running after beaching the F1 W12 in the gravel. The team also have stated that on the data, Red Bull appear faster in race trim. Mercedes have only topped preseason testing once in the last 5 seasons and still gone on to win both Championships, so they may be jumping the gun on their pessimism.
However, Red Bull do look a threat now, they have ditched their junior recruitment after a disappointing stint for Alexander Albon, and now they have the services of Sergio Pérez, a veteran of the midfield with an impressive 10 podiums. Coupled with this is the momentum of Verstappen’s dominant performance at the 2020 season-ending Abu Dhabi GP, where he took pole and the victory, as well as significant engine development from Honda ahead of their exit at the conclusion of 2021.
Do I think Red Bull have done enough to stop Lewis? I’m unconvinced. It’s all well and good putting in development but neither Max nor Sergio have had the pressure of a Championship fight to contend with, Lewis has been involved in 10 of which he’s won 7, and only narrowly missed out on another two.
Mercedes’ supremacy may be challenged, but I believe Lewis’ experience will carry him whether Red Bull have caught up or not. The victory at last year’s Turkish GP is a stark reminder of Hamilton’s ability to pull results from nowhere when his car isn’t at optimum performance.
2) Ferrari on the mend
For Ferrari’s standards, 2020 was dreadful. Their engine was sufficiently down on power after skirting the rules in 2019, and their overall chassis package was poor. Last year was their worst performance since 1980, with a measly three podiums seeing Ferrari finish a lowly 6th in the Constructor’s standings.
Coupled in with the poor car was a dejected Sebastian Vettel, who entered the delayed season knowing he was already leaving the team, whilst Charles Leclerc was overcompensating the car on too many occasions and the cause of a few needless accidents, notably at the Styria and Sakhir GPs.
Ferrari have spent their two development tokens to improve the rear of the car, where they believed their weaknesses were on the 2020 car. The team looked better in testing but with only 3 days of running, it’s quite difficult to gain an overall impression heading into a record-breaking season with 23 scheduled races.
This year is also an important year for Charles, now in his fourth season in F1, we’ll be expecting him to cut out these rookie mistakes, he also has a new and relatively youthful teammate to fight for team honour. Carlos Sainz Jr. has taken (some would say backwards) step from McLaren to the Scuderia, he has had a few consistent seasons at the Woking team but has also been guilty of some mistakes, particularly that crash on the first lap at Sochi last season.
The line-up has the potential but Ferrari risk being left behind by Red Bull and Mercedes should they fail to make significant improvements before the huge regulation overhaul in 2022, and the likes of McLaren, Alpine and Aston Martin don’t look too shabby either. One thing the team will definitely need is to avoid having their drivers collide, which wasn’t the case with 2020.
3) Who will top the midfield?
Whilst the Championship fight was a bit of a damp squib in 2020, the midfield fight was exhilarating. It was eventually won by Sergio Perez for Racing Point (now Aston Martin) after a rollercoaster year, from missing two races due to a positive COVID-19 test to winning his first race at the 190th attempt at the Sakhir GP. The Mexican has moved on to Red Bull and thus out of this ‘midfield’ fight. So, who will take the crown in 2021?
Of course, a lot rides on what actually constitutes the midfield because of Ferrari’s disastrous 2020, so for the benefits of the article this will include McLaren, Aston Martin, Alpine and AlphaTauri.
Of the four I’d definitely say McLaren are in pole position, not only because of their 3rd place finish in the Constructor’s, but also luring Daniel Ricciardo, who finished 5th in a Renault that wasn’t necessarily the best car in the midfield fight. McLaren will also boast a Mercedes engine which could just push that little bit further. Not that the Renault engine did a bad job, but a Mercedes engine slightly edges ahead in terms of performance. If I were a betting man (it’s not something I’m hugely experienced in), I’d put my money on the Australian to reign supreme in the midfield.
Aston Martin will also be in the mix, but will a new team give Sebastian Vettel his mojo back to match Perez’s results of last season? Teammate Lance Stroll made big steps forward in 2020 but needs to add consistency to his performances.
Alpine and AlphaTauri both carry threats to those around them, but both line ups have their drawbacks. For Alpine, they have a ‘rookie’ who hasn’t raced in F1 since 2018 in Fernando Alonso, whilst AlphaTauri are placing a lot of faith in F2 graduate, Yuki Tsunoda.
4) Can Williams end their drought?
Though progress was made in 2020 in terms of pace and qualifying performances, with George Russell making regular Q2 appearances and even beating a Ferrari on some occasions, Williams still managed to score fewer points than 2019. That’s quite an achievement considering they only scored one that year.
There were of course chances, with George squandering the best one behind the safety car at Imola, but the team are on the right track after a wretched few seasons. 2021 sees the team stick with Russell and Latifi, and will be looking to hit the ground running with a strong performance in Bahrain.
Latifi showed that reaching the chequered flag at the opening round of last season drastically increased chances of scoring points, narrowly missing out finishing 11th, so completing the first few races whilst teams further up the grid are troubleshooting niggles will be vital to improve on their pointless 2020. George tasted points whilst subbing for Hamilton at Mercedes last year, for which he deserved far better than the 9th place he recorded, but the experience will only better him as a driver.
Last season may have been a missed opportunity for the British team to pick up points. Alfa Romeo and Haas’ descent to the rear of the grid was largely down to the Ferrari power unit. With a new engine having an increase of about 40 BHP, Williams may find the teams they were scrapping with to get out of Q1 have actually left them behind.
5) Driver crisis brewing at Mercedes (again)?
We said this last year and then Valtteri Bottas and Lewis Hamilton signed contract extensions, but both are only for a single season, and the two drivers are getting on a bit now. The pair are a winning combo for Mercedes so they shouldn’t feel the need to change it, but I really fear for Bottas this season. The Finn gets a lot of flack for some lacklustre performances, particularly his drive in Turkey last year, and his inability to challenge Lewis on a regular basis. This season he faces a bigger challenge.
Not only does Bottas need to be winning races, but he also has to keep behind two Red Bulls now. Bottas really only needed to focus on holding Max at bay last season whilst Albon struggled to get out of the midfield, now with Pérez joining there are two strong and experienced drivers in the RB16B, both capable of causing a headache in races.
The future is also cloudy for 7-time Champion, Lewis Hamilton. I find the 1-year extension to be an odd decision for a driver of his calibre. He’ll more than likely break the 100 wins mark in 2021 and is still a strong favourite for the title, but with a new era for F1 beginning in 2022, will Lewis see this as an opportunity for a fresh challenge?
There is also the small matter of George Russell still being at Williams, how long can Mercedes hold off promoting their junior driver, especially considering his exploits during that substitute appearance for the Silver Arrows at last year’s Sakhir GP.
6) Imola and Portimão take two
Of the 17 Grand Prix that took place in 2020, only 10 were originally part of the calendar. Whilst three tracks: Austria, Great Britain and Bahrain hosted extra rounds; four replacement tracks were added to the calendar. Two of these replacement races, Imola and Portimão, return for a second time following an early season-calendar shuffle, but do these tracks deserve permanent slots?
Judging the 2020 races, one of them certainly does. I won’t hide it, Portimão is one of my favourite tracks with such an intriguing mix of corners and altitude changes, the race was pretty decent as well. The DRS zone may have been a bit too long but it didn’t lead to automatic overtakes. The lap long battles between Sainz and Raikkonen was also a spectacle to savour, which is not a regular occurrence at most other tracks.
On the other hand, Imola was an average race, only 6 on-track overtakes is hardly exciting but the track is notoriously challenging for overtaking anyway, even with the changes to the final sector. Yet, most fans will share the opinion that both of these races were far superior to recent races at tracks like Yas Marina, Sochi and Barcelona, whilst the new race in Saudi Arabia wasn’t high on the wish list of places the paddock should visit.
The 2020 season highlighted that F1 definitely needs some rotation in its calendar, and really questions why the sport puts up with a number of mediocre races on tracks that have owners who are not willing to at least try something to change it. Both Portimão and Imola offer the best of both for F1 fans, a contemporary new facility and a nod to the nostalgia of F1. Maybe the sport should ditch permanent contracts for all but a handful of historic races. Because these two tracks certainly deserve a more regular presence.
