Part 2 of this preview series ahead of the 2021 IndyCar season takes a look at the five drivers I expect to be in the Championship fight wherever the seasons ends up finishing (currently Long Beach). From a Red Bull reject to the youngest winner in IndyCar history, reigning Champion Scott Dixon has a lot of competition facing him.
Scott Dixon (NZL) – #9 | Chip Ganassi Racing | IndyCar Champion: 2003, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2018 & 2020
Scott Dixon is one of the most decorated drivers in IndyCar history, taking his maiden title in 2003 in the first year of the Championship since its rebranding from CART. He’s been with the Chip Ganassi team since his debut that year, and after having taken a further five titles, it has to be said that 2020 was one of his best. Four wins equalled his 2013 title victory season in spite of having five fewer races.
The New Zealander effectively sealed his sixth IndyCar title when he crossed the line to finish 2nd at the delayed running of the Indy 500 in August. Before that point, Dixon had four podiums in six races, including victories in the opening three rounds.
Dixon’s start to the season was formidable and built up such a margin that the best efforts of his nearest rivals weren’t enough to topple the Chip Ganassi driver. Even in a rather dry spell after the Indy 500 where Scott only took two podiums in 7 races (P1 in Gateway I and P3 in St. Petersburg), he had enough in hand to canter to another title. Outside of winning four of the 14 races, Dixon only finished outside the top 10 once, and even that was a 12th place after spinning in Road America race 2.
The 41-year-old barely put a foot wrong in 2020, but his rivals were building momentum towards the end of his title-winning season. Starting 2021 the same way as he did to 2020 may be the only way Dixon can equal A.J. Foyt’s record of seven IndyCar titles.
Josef Newgarden (USA) – #2 | Team Penske | IndyCar Champion: 2017 & 2019
The 2019 Champion came into the pandemic-hit season with great confidence that he could make it a third title in four years, it wasn’t quite to be, but Newgarden still had a strong 2020. It wasn’t that Newgarden had a bad season, it was just the deficit from Dixon’s formidable start was too much to overturn.
Whilst 2020 Champion Dixon took four podiums in the first five races, including winning rounds 1-3, Newgarden took a solitary 3rd place in the opening round at Texas. By the time Newgarden took his first win at Iowa II in round 6, he was nearly 100 points behind Dixon.
Newgarden gave it his all to at least take the title to a showdown in St. Petersburg, after winning a further two races (Gateway II and Harvest GP I on the Indy Road course) and taking a P2 (Mid-Ohio I). Josef would win the final round but finish 2nd overall in the standings, missing out on the Championship by 16 points. He at least took the crown of most wins on road courses, and these make up the bulk of races in 2021.
Newgarden will be entering his 10th IndyCar season in 2021, and his fifth at Team Penske. I expect him to be the leading contender to take the crown this year.
Colton Herta (USA) – #26 | Andretti Autosport | 2020 Championship Position: 3rd
The 2018 Indy Lights runner-up had one of the most consistent scorecards in 2020, claiming 11 top 10s in 14 races, including a victory at Mid-Ohio race 2. He also beat his 2019 points tally in spite of three fewer races as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Colton’s season was dictated by his sheer consistency, taking three P4 and two P5 finishes, maximising his points whilst the Andretti team had a sluggish start to the season. Maybe it was the partnership with Harding Steinbrenner that got the best of the car for Herta, but it was no fluke that he finished third in the standings.
For 2021, Colton switches to the #26 Andretti Autosport car, showing the faith that Michael has in him. The 21-year-old has plenty of accolades already, the first driver born in the 2000s to race when he made his debut at Sonoma in 2018, to being the youngest ever winner just two races into his 2019 campaign in the IndyCar Classic at Circuit of the Americas.
He may not be the flashiest of drivers, but the sheer consistency of Colton makes him a Championship contender in his own right. Andretti got their act together by the midway stage of 2020, so expect Herta to be carrying the flag for the team at the front of the grid in 2021, although another Andretti driver will have something to say about that.
Patricio ‘Pato’ O’Ward (MEX) – #5 | Arrow McLaren SP | 2020 Championship Position: 4th
The 21-year-old Mexican had a stellar first full season in IndyCar with the rebranded Arrow McLaren SP team. O’Ward took three second-place finishes (Road America II, Gateway and St. Petersburg), and a further seven top-10 finishes across 2020 to finish 4th overall in the standings. He also took pole position at Road America II, and was just two laps from taking his debut victory before being overtaken by Felix Rosenqvist.
Pato’s progress in just one season was incredible. Granted, Carlin aren’t one of the front runners in IndyCar, but in his part-time campaign in 2019, his best result was 8th at Circuit of the Americas. He also joined Fernando Alonso in failing to qualify for the Indy 500 that year as well.
For 2021 Pato sticks with Arrow McLaren SP, who have gone from regular top 10 finishers to podium sitters in a little over a year since the British marquee joined forces with Schmidt Peterson. He will also be joined by Rosenqvist, who moves across from Chip Ganassi Racing.
O’Ward set fastest times in multi-car testing at Sebring, Laguna Seca and Texas, which emphasises his credentials. Testing is just a guide, but topping the times at multiple venues is a good indicator of Pato’s raw speed. He may be up against multi-time champions are drivers twice his age, but do keep an eye on the black and orange car this year.
Alexander Rossi (USA) – #28 | Andretti Autosport | 2020 Championship Position: 9th
Alexander Rossi may be a familiar name for F1 fans, he had a best finish of 12th at his home race in Austin amongst his five race starts for Manor Marussia in 2015. I was shocked that Haas didn’t sign him for the 2016 season, it was an ideal opportunity to have an American driver for their team, but it was never to be. Instead, the Californian native moved to IndyCar.
Last season was Rossi’s worst year since his debut in 2016, but most of it was out of his control, his team just couldn’t grapple with the effects of the aeroscreen on their cars. A software glitch meant that Rossi started from the pits in the opening round at Texas, and his season didn’t look much better when he crashed out of the Indy 500, having also been given a penalty for a pitlane incident.
Nevertheless, Rossi regrouped after his disappointing start to take four consecutive podiums across the Mid-Ohio and Harvest GP (Indy Road course) doubleheaders, but a victory evaded him for the first time in his IndyCar career. He threw a golden opportunity away when crashing out from P2 at the season-ending race at St. Petersburg.
So why am I including Rossi? It’s because of his potential and the momentum that was building by the end of the 2020 season. The four consecutive podiums moved Rossi up from 17th to 9th in the Championship, and had he had this form throughout the rest of the year, it would have seen him near the top. He also won the Indy 500 in his debut season and has already finished 2nd and 3rd in the Championship (2018 and 2019 respectively).
Rossi has a solid foundation and with winning the 24 Hours of Daytona in January. The wind is in his sails to have a strong 2021.
Predictions:
Driver’s Champion: Josef Newgarden
Rookie of the Year: Scott McLaughlin
Having already decided on McLaughlin to win the rookie award in 2021, I’ve predicted that team-mate Josef Newgarden will win the 2021 Championship.
His four wins towards the end of 2020 brought him in striking distance of the title in spite of a huge points deficit in the early races. Josef was also Road course champion last year, and as these make up 7 of the 17 races on the 2021 schedule, this should play to his advantage. I’m not one to read into superstitions, but Newgarden has also only won his IndyCar titles in odd-numbered years (2017 and 2019). It would just make sense for that run to continue in 2021.
