The NFL’s Divisional Round sees reigning Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs and NFC top seed Green Bay Packers enter the fray as the race to the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LV hots up this weekend.
Eight teams enter the Divisional playoffs and will become four after the weekend’s action. AFC top seed Chiefs look to continue their superior record across the season as they join the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns and the Packers reunite with the New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams in the NFC.
Both third and fourth seeds in the AFC and NFC crashed out in the Wild Card round which leaves the draw more open than usual. Ominously, the Chiefs and Packers will enjoy a home advantage all the way to the Super Bowl final should they win.
Here are our NFL Divisional Round previews and predictions and where to watch in the UK:
AFC
Cleveland Browns (6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1) – 20:05 GMT Sunday 17th January, Sky Sports NFL
Never say never in the NFL but surely the Cleveland Browns can’t pull off another shock this weekend to dump out the reigning Champions?
The Browns overcame adversity last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. A COVID-19 outbreak ruled out a number of players and coaching staff, including head coach Kevin Stefanski, and they only had one practice session before the game. They blew Pittsburgh away 28-0 in the first quarter and won 48-37 in the end. Stefanski will be back this weekend but faces a daunting opposition who boast a 14-2 this season.
The Chiefs are clear favourites for this tie but will have to be wary of any pre-match rustiness after their starting line was rested in Week 17 and the bye meant they have not played for three weeks. In last season’s Divisional Round, they went 24-0 down to the Houston Texans before turning the game around. The Chiefs can’t afford history repeating itself on Sunday as the Browns had the best first quarter of any team in NFL playoff history against the Steelers.
The Browns will enter Arrowhead Stadium knowing that the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes combination are 6-0 in playoffs and average 38 points scored in each of those games. The Browns ended their 25-year wait for a playoff victory in spectacular style but I fear the Chiefs are just a step too far for them.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens (5) @ Buffalo Bills (2) – 01:15 GMT Sunday 17th January, Sky Sports NFL
Buffalo Bills made history of their own by winning their first playoff game since 1995 last week but it was a real slog against the seventh seeds, Indianapolis Colts, with the Bills running out 27-24 winners in the Wild Card opener.
The Baltimore Ravens came from 10-0 down to beat the Tennessee Titans 20-13 with QB Lamar Jackson running the show following an early interception. The Ravens will have a day less to prepare for this showdown as they played on Sunday.
This tie will be another one dominated by the QB match ups. Bills’ Josh Allen has had a better season compared to Jackson, finishing with 46 total touchdowns and 4,965 total yards compared to Jackson’s 3,762 total yards and 33 total touchdowns.
Both teams are in incredible form heading into this tie. The Bills’ seven-game winning run is only one better than the Ravens’ six wins in a row but one side will see this ended early Sunday morning in the UK. Bills have a 9-1 home record in their last 10 playoff games so will enter this game as slight favourites.
However, the last team to progress from the Wild Card round and make it to the Super Bowl were the Ravens in 2012 who, ironically, went on to win it. Although the Bills had a tough game last week, that experience should motivate the team to put an end to their dismal record against Baltimore to make it through to the Conference round for the first time since 1993.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills
NFC
Los Angeles Rams (6) @ Green Bay Packers (1) – 21:35 GMT Saturday 16th January, Sky Sports NFL
Green Bay Packers enter with a 13-3 record this season and only one home defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. They welcome the Los Angeles Rams, who avenged their Week 16 defeat to the Seattle Seahawks with a 30-20 victory and looked pretty comfortable doing so.
One look at the statistics will tell you this contest should be a hard-fought battle between offense and defense. The Packers boast the highest points-per-game with 31.8 but LA Rams have the lowest points-against-per-game at 18.5.
It is expected to be a sub-freezing night in Green Bay and the Rams will be concerned about how this may exacerbate existing injuries to their players. The QB position is a particular worry owing to Jared Goff’s fragile thumb whilst John Woolford, who started against the Seahawks, suffered a stinger and left the game in the first half.
Adding to the injury concerns is Aaron Donald’s rib injury after being on the end of a big tackle in the Seahawks game. These injuries could be easy targets for the Packers to exploit as they look to disrupt the Rams, especially with QB Aaron Rodgers in top form with eight touchdown passes and over 470 yards in his last two games.
I expect this game to be close as Rams have a capable defence to stifle Green Bay but the Lambeau Field advantage should see the Packers come out on top.
Prediction: Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5) @ New Orleans Saints (2) – 23:40 GMT Sunday 17th January, Sky Sports NFL
The NFC South rivals reunite following their victories last week. The New Orleans Saints eased to a 21-9 victory over the Chicago Bears whilst the Tampa Bay Buccaneers triumphed 31-23 against a stubborn Washington Football Team.
The head-to-head stats all point to the Saints progressing on Sunday. They’ve beaten Tampa Bay twice already this season, 34-23 and 38-3, and coach Bruce Arians has lost all four games against the Saints since joining the Buccaneers. In the last 25 years, teams that have gone 2-0 against a Divisional opponent during the regular season are 9-3 when facing them for a third time during the playoffs.
This is a huge showdown between veteran QBs Drew Brees (Saints) and Tom Brady (Buccaneers) who have never met each other in the playoffs. Brady has the stronger playoff record – but is now in a different conference after dominating the AFC – against Brees who has the AFC experience and holds the record for all-time passing touchdowns.
In what looks to be Brees’ last season, it would be a tragedy if the Saints fall early in the playoffs again to extend his three gut-wrenching playoff losses in a row. They have the added pressure to overcome the ghosts of previous defeats against the Minnesota Vikings and LA Rams. With how well the Saints defence contained Mitch Trubisky last weekend, similar tactics against 43-year-old Brady should secure progression for New Orleans.
Prediction: New Orleans Saints
Success in the NFL Divisional Round will mean that teams are just 60 minutes of normal game time away from Super Bowl LV in February. In the last three seasons, home teams are 10-2 in the divisional round so it seems logical to favour the four home teams this season. Yet, the Wild Card round showed that seedings do not mean much in this competition.
There is a clear gap in the rankings but the Chiefs and Packers face teams that are capable of causing an upset and will need to be wary of carrying rust over from their byes. Buffalo and New Orleans are in prime position to capitalise if the top seeds falter and grasp the home advantage for the Conference playoffs.
