After 266 NFL games, we’re down to the last four teams. Reigning champions, Kansas City Chiefs, as well as the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one win away from Super Bowl LV.
Here is a preview of this weekend’s crucial Conference round playoff games and how to watch in the UK:
NFC
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5) @ Green Bay Packers (1) – 20:05 GMT Sunday 25th January, Sky Sports NFL
As predicted, the Green Bay Packers secured safe passage through to the Conference round following a 32-18 victory over the LA Rams. In the other fixture, Tampa Bay Buccaneers avenged their two regular season defeats against New Orleans Saints to win 30-20.
The Packers are one of the most successful teams in the NFL with four Super Bowl wins. But, since their last Championship ring in 2010, Green Bay have lost the last three Conference Championship games. All three of those were on the road: 37-20 to the San Francisco 49ers (2019), 26-20 O/T at Arizona Cardinals (2015) and 28-22 O/T at the Seattle Seahawks (2014). This year is a home tie in front of a limited, but spirited crowd at Lambeau Field which provides a massive opportunity for them to set the record straight.
Only fools would discount the Bucs though. Despite this being their first Conference round appearance since 2002, they did go on to win the Vince Lombardi trophy that season. Let’s not forget Tom Brady too. It’s an unchartered conference for the veteran Quarterback but he’s the most decorated player in NFL history for a reason.
What factor will decide the game?
The battle of the QBs: Aaron Rodgers vs Brady. They have been the best QBs in the NFL for the last decade but they have only gone head-to-head three times due to playing in different conferences.
After 20 years with the New England Patriots in the AFC, the six-time Super Bowl winner moved to NFC side Buccaneers this season and Sunday’s tie will be the first time Brady and Rodgers have faced each other postseason.
Tampa Bay faced Green Bay back in Week Six of the regular season when Brady led the Buccaneers to a 38-10 win on home turf – passing for 166 yards and two touchdowns. Rodgers struggled against the Buccaneers’ strong defense on that occasion as as he only completed 15 of 36 passes for 160 yards and two interceptions. This time, the Bucs will face a frosty trip to Lambeau Field and will have to put in another impressive rear-guard display to contain leading MVP-contender Rodgers for a second time.
Injury report (as of Wednesday 20th January 2021)
Packers:
- Krys Barnes (Linebacker) – thumb, limited practice
- Mason Crosby (Kicker) – shoulder, limited practice
- AJ Dillon (Running Back) – quadricep, limited practice
- Kingsley Keke (Defensive Tackle) – concussion, limited practice
- Allen Lazard (Wide Receiver) – wrist/back, limited practice
- Marcedes Lewis (Tight End) – knee, limited practice
- Za’Darius Smith (Linebacker) – thumb, limited practice
- Equanimous St. Brown (Wide Receiver) – knee/ankle, limited practice
- Rick Wagner (Offensive Tackle) – knee, limited practice
- Jamaal Williams (Running Back) – ankle, limited practice
- Will Redmond (Safety) – knee, full practice
Buccaneers:
- Antonio Brown (Wide Receiver) – knee, did not practice
- Jason Pierre-Paul (Outside Linebacker) – knee/not injury related, did not practice
- Mike Evans (Wide Receiver) – knee, limited practice
- Chris Godwin (Wide Receiver) – quad, limited practice
- Ronald Jones (Running Back) – quad/finger, limited practice
- Sean Murphy-Bunting (Cornerback) – quad/ankle, limited practice
- Jordan Whitehead (Safety) – knee, limited practice
- Jeremiah Ledbetter (Defensive Tackle) – calf, full practice
- Ali Marpet (Guard) – pectoral, full practice
The Buccaneers conducted a walk-through practice on Wednesday to give the players some extra rest after a physical Divisional round win in New Orleans last Sunday. The only players that were classified as non-participants were Wide Receiver Antonio Brown and outside Linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul. Brown suffered a knee injury in Sunday’s game, but an MRI had revealed no major damage.
The Packers listed 11 players on their first practice report of the week. All but one of those players, Guard Ali Marpet, were listed as limited.
Recent match-ups
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team |
| 18/10/2020 | Buccaneers | 38-10 | Packers |
| 03/12/2017 | Packers | 26-20 (O/T) | Buccaneers |
| 21/12/2014 | Buccaneers | 3-20 | Packers |
| 20/11/2011 | Packers | 35-26 | Buccaneers |
| 08/11/2009 | Buccaneers | 38-28 | Packers |
| 28/09/2008 | Buccaneers | 30-21 | Packers |
| 25/09/2005 | Packers | 16-17 | Buccaneers |
| 16/11/2003 | Buccaneers | 13-20 | Packers |
| 24/11/2002 | Buccaneers | 21-7 | Packers |
| 04/11/2001 | Packers | 21-20 | Buccaneers |
I rather foolishly wrote of Tampa Bay’s chances against the Saints, bearing in mind how woefully they performed at the Superdome in the regular season. The Bucs were really impressive in stifling the Saints and made QB Drew Brees look rather pedestrian as he failed to attempt throwing over 20 yards all game. This time around, they face the number one seeds who have reached another level since losing at the 49ers this time last season.
The Bucs are so close to grasping a dream Super Bowl appearance in their own stadium but I see the Packers being too strong on this occasion. The Rams made it difficult for Green Bay but Rodgers found his mojo and led the Packers to victory. With the humbling performance he had at the Bucs in regular season, Rodgers will be motivated to banish those demons and grasp that MVP title by leading Green Bay to their first Super Bowl in over a decade.
Prediction: Green Bay Packers
AFC
Buffalo Bills (2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1) – 23:40 GMT Sunday 25th January, Sky Sports NFL
The Bills and the Chiefs were far from convincing in their respective Divisional round games against the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns.
The game changing 101-yard touchdown pick from Taron Johnson secured a 17-3 victory for Buffalo, meaning that the Bills will be contesting their first AFC Championship game since 1993. They also now boast an impressive eight-game winning streak.
After falling in the 2019 Divisional round following a bye week, Kansas City didn’t show the same rustiness at the start as they rushed into a 19-3 lead. They eventually ground out a 22-17 win after an injury to star QB, Patrick Mahomes, dented the Chiefs’ momentum. Victory against the Browns ensured the Chiefs retain home advantage and become the first team since the Ravens in the early 2000s to host three consecutive Conference playoff games.
What factor will decide the game?
Defense. Buffalo reduced the Ravens to just three points in the Divisional round and have restricted seven of their past eight opponents to 25 points or less. The Chiefs have held their past three opponents to below 25 points and are more than capable of making timely defensive plays.
However, an inconsistent pass defense could be problematic against Buffalo’s pass-oriented offense, especially considering the question marks on Mahomes’ fitness.
Another key deciding factor is the QB match-up as the Chiefs and Bills have two of the best QBs in the NFL. Mahomes has already been an MVP for KC whilst Bills’ Josh Allen is a credible candidate for this season’s award. Mahomes and Allen enjoy a high-calibre offense with Kansas City and Buffalo boasting the best and second-best total offense this season respectively.
Injury report (as of Wednesday 20th January 2021)
Chiefs:
- Willie Gay Jr. (Linebacker) – ankle, did not practice
- Bashaud Breeland (Cornerback) – concussion/shoulder, limited practice
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Running Back) – ankle/hip, limited practice
- Rashad Fenton (Cornerback) – foot, limited practice
- Sammy Watkins (Wide Receiver) – calf, limited practice
- Patrick Mahomes (Quarterback) – concussion/toe, full practice
Bills:
- Vernon Butler (Defensive Tackle) – quad, did not practice
- Gabriel Davis (Wide Receiver) – ankle, did not practice
- Stefon Diggs (Wide Receiver) – ribs, limited practice
- Jake Fromm (Quarterback) – not injury related, limited practice
- Quinton Jefferson (Defensive Tackle) – ankle, limited practice
- Tyler Bass (Kicker) – foot, full practice
- Tremaine Edmunds (Linebacker) – hamstring, full practice
- Darryl Johnson (Defensive End) – knee, full practice
The Chiefs will be buoyed by Mahomes’ return to full training. Backup QB Chad Henne did a respectable job as replacement in the final quarter, but there was a marked difference in performance as the Browns got within a score after the Chiefs held a 19-3 lead at half-time. The Bills are in formidable form and Kansas City need their star QB fit to play but must be mindful of concussion protocols.
Buffalo’s interior defensive line could be short this week as starting DT Vernon Butler was a non-participant in practice and backup Quinton Jefferson was limited. In their Week Six triumph in Buffalo, Kansas City rushed for 245 yards. That interior defensive line is critical to preventing a repeat on Sunday.
Recent match-ups
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team |
| 19/10/2020 | Bills | 17-26 | Chiefs |
| 26/11/2017 | Chiefs | 10-16 | Bills |
| 29/11/2015 | Chiefs | 30-22 | Bills |
| 09/11/2014 | Bills | 13-17 | Chiefs |
| 03/11/2013 | Bills | 13-23 | Chiefs |
| 16/09/2012 | Bills | 35-17 | Chiefs |
| 11/09/2011 | Chiefs | 7-41 | Bills |
| 31/10/2010 | Chiefs | 13-10 (O/T) | Bills |
| 13/12/2009 | Chiefs | 10-16 | Bills |
| 23/11/2008 | Chiefs | 31-54 | Bills |
Chiefs have won six of their last 10 games against Buffalo, including their meeting at Orchard Park in Week Six. However, as number one seed, the Chiefs will have the Arrowhead Stadium crowd behind them – although their two NFL defeats this season have both come at home (Las Vegas Raiders (Week 5)) and (LA Chargers (Week 17)). Some optimism is that Bills’ two defeats have come on the road, falling short against the Tennessee Titans (Week 5) and Arizona Cardinals (Week 10).
This has the hallmarks of an exciting game and both sides are worthy of a spot in Tampa Bay. Although the bookies have the Chiefs as slight favourites, Bills’ form and motivation to reach the Super Bowl for the first time in 27 years could add that additional boost to secure victory.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills
Due to COVID-19 protocols, the Pro Bowl has been called off which was due to take place on Sunday 31st January. In its place will be a week-long virtual celebration in recognition of the players that were voted to take part. This gives the teams an extra week to prepare for Super Bowl LV on Sunday 7th February.
Whatever the outcome this weekend, fans in the UK may need to wrangle a late start or a day off for the Monday after the Super Bowl in two weeks due to the 23:30 GMT start time. However, there will hopefully be two cracking games of football this weekend to look forward to first.