Featured image courtesy of Tim De Waele via Getty Images
If cycling thought it had gone beyond the weirdness of rearranged races during a pandemic, think again.
Two Monuments have been raced at Sanremo and Flanders but if it hadn’t been for a French Presidential election, the third Monument Paris-Roubaix would have been raced on Sunday 10th April.
The Amstel Gold Race kicked off hilly Classics season a week earlier than planned, the normal schedule for cobbled Classics specialists turned on its head. Some have criticised, others haven’t really complained. It does disrupt the schedule slightly for those wishing to ride Flanders then go straight away to recon the Roubaix cobbles.
Getting on with what is in front of the riders is now the question for all. Amstel Gold would have definitely been a decent warm-up for those racing Paris-Roubaix and in a way it does give the specialists more suited to the hilly Ardennes Classics a bit of a breather post Amstel and De Brabantse Pijl in midweek.
Looking ahead, it is now time to conclude the cobbles for this season. The final roll of the dice for riders who have a love hate relationship with the pavè, Paris-Roubaix is the third of the five Monuments, nicknamed the Hell of the North.
Whether it is dusty dry conditions or rainy muddy conditions, Roubaix is hell. L’Enfer du Nord, set in the north of France, features daunting sectors of cobblestones over 257.2km (54.8km of them to be precise) and at the finish a world famous velodrome in all of cycling.
Since 1896, Roubaix has created drama like any other bike race. The terrain means riders have adapted their bikes but it doesn’t mean punctures and mechanical problems cannot happen.
After witnessing an unbelievable Tour of Flanders victory for Mathieu van der Poel, the Dutchman is back to race Roubaix again after coming third last year. Wout Van Aert is back to race and it’s important to point out that this will be the first Spring Paris-Roubaix since 2019 as 2020 saw it cancelled and 2021 saw the race scheduled for October.
The route
257.2km in total from Compiègne, famous for where the Armistice to end World War One was signed, to Roubaix, a town that grew rapidly from its textile industry – this race features 54.8km of hellish pavé.
Below is the route map.
The Hell of the North opens with almost 100km on flat and smooth asphalt, that’s roughly two hours to warm up to the idea that an onslaught is imminent. A break will go up the road too, usually made up from pro-continental teams who need the TV publicity.
Each cobbled sector is classified by stars, one star meaning the easiest section to five star being the most difficult.
The hardship begins near Troisvilles on a stretch of pavé with three stars and a length of 2,200 metres. The route continues with every 6km or so a bunch of cobbles but actually, this phase of the race is just about creating suspense.
Tension rises when approaching the Arenberg Forest at the heart of the race, a five star sector where the race could be won or lost. The so called Trouée d’Arenberg is 2,284 metres long and rendered dark by the over-stretching trees on either side. The road heads straight on through the woods and because it descends slightly in the first half speeds are high. Aspiring winners should be at the front, otherwise you risk getting caught up behind or in crashes.
Paris-Roubaix really is on fire when hitting the pavé to Wandignies-Hamage and the route continues onto Mons-en-Pévèle where a combination of the length of 2,985 metres and the sorry state of the cobbles account for brutal hardship in the peloton.
Still eleven sectors remain after leaving Mons-en-Pévèle. Within less than 30km to go the riders tackle the pavé of Mérignies à Avelin (700 metres), Pont-Thibault à Ennevelin (1.4km), Templeuve – L’Epinette (200 metres), Templeuve-Moulin-de-Vertain (500 metres), Cysoing à Bourghelles (1.3 metres), Bourghelles à Wannehain (1.1km) and Camphin-en-Pévèle (1.8km).
The iconic Carrefour de l’Arbre appears with 16.5km left. At 2.8km, this stretch of pavé is feared for the sloped corners. After 1.2km, a tricky left-hand bend leads to a slight ascent where specialists who want to strike for victory should to do it on the Carrefour de l’Arbre, as this is their last opportunity due to the last three sectors being way too easy.
Gruson and Willems à Hem lead the way to the last cobbled section, in Roubaix itself, which is only there for show. Riders whether caked in dust, dirt or mud continue into the old Velodrome with one and a half laps to go.
After the 2020 edition was cancelled due to the pandemic, last year’s race took place in October when it turned into a real mud-fest with Sonny Colbrelli emerging victorious. The Italian outgunned Florian Vermeersch and Mathieu van der Poel in a three-up sprint.
Title holder Sonny Colbrelli started 2022 with his eyes firmly set on the Classics, but after he collapsed at the finish of the Volta a Catalunya’s 1st stage things now look totally different. There will be no defense of his title after last year’s Roubaix success. Instead, he needed a subcutaneous defibrillator implantation operation and will be happy to return to competitive racing once he is recovered.
It is very sad after the season Colbrelli had last year, that we’ll never see what the current European road champion could have done this Spring.
It is also clear that we won’t be seeing a repeat of the muddy conditions from last year. A perfect blend of positioning, bike handling, power and tactical nous are essential to win the Hell of the North, as well as some luck. Crashes and mechanical problems are inevitable where timing could be the difference in winning or losing Paris-Roubaix.
The contenders
So who are the contenders to win the 119th Paris-Roubaix?
It is not going to be a surprise to you that there are so many names who could win. Another lottery awaits but there are five top names who we should consider to be in contention.
After sprinting to victory at the Tour of Flanders two weeks ago, Alpecin-Fenix have a strong team spearheaded by Mathieu van der Poel. A back injury that put the Dutchman’s early season on hold has clearly dissipated. There no longer seems to be a problem as evidenced by a terrific performance at Milan-Sanremo and now a second victory at De Ronde.
It was perfectly acceptable to expect van der Poel not to have the legs to compete at Amstel Gold last week. A sprint for fourth was still achieved but had Amstel been raced this weekend, you might have fancied him to take another Amstel Gold title.
Mathieu van der Poel came third at Paris-Roubaix last season and will start the 119th edition as red hot favourite. Was Amstel a small blip? Most likely and there is also one big difference to Rouabix and his victory at Flanders – Wout Van Aert is back to take on his once arch cyclo-cross nemesis.
Jumbo-Visma are always going to be a strong team to beat but apart from taking Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and the E3 Saxo-Bank Classic, Wout Van Aert has not taken the big Classics races he would have hoped for. Milan-Sanremo was a miss and COVID-19 sadly ruled him out of Flanders. Has the Belgian recovered enough to take on the Roubaix cobbles?
If Van Aert is not up for the job then he can act as a support rider to others. Frenchman Christophe Laporte may have suffered from a crash at De Ronde but he still managed to haul himself a ninth place overall. There is potential but no matter what happens, Jumbo-Visma will be hoping they can salvage a small piece of huge success for their Spring.
With no Sonny Colbrelli, his team Bahrain-Victorious have had to weigh up their options elsewhere and that includes the recent winner of Milan-Sanremo Matej Mohorič but also a rider who has proven himself on the cobbles already. British rider Fred Wright should be in contention to perform once again on the pavé.
Jumbo-Visma are always going to be a strong team to beat but apart from taking Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and the E3 Saxo-Bank Classic, Wout Van Aert has not been around to take the significant Classics every specialist really wants to win.
Already a Milan-Sanremo champion in 2020, a second title has not come his way yet and that elusive first Tour of Flanders victory has also yet to come. COVID-19 sadly put an end to the Belgian’s chances of winning De Ronde two weeks ago, so how will Van Aert respond?
The recovery of Wout Van Aert will be fascinating but if he’s not up to the job then Jumbo-Visma do have others who are perfectly capable of winning Paris-Roubaix including Frenchman Christophe Laporte, who may have crashed at De Ronde but did manage to haul himself up to ninth overall.
There is potential with this Jumbo-Visma squad, their objectives for the summer still on the horizon. The team though would have hoped for better this Spring, a chance to salvage something is there for the taking.
With no Sonny Colbrelli, his team Bahrain-Victorious have had to weigh up their options this Spring and that includes recent winner of Milan-Sanremo Matej Mohorič. The Slovenian should be in contention as should another of their star riders who performed brilliantly on debut – Britain’s Fred Wright is certainly a Classics star of the future.
Groupama-FDJ’s Stefan Küng must also be considered a favourite and in Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl they really need a win. The ‘Wolfpack’ have had a dismal Classics campaign and you don’t say that often. Both Yves Lampaert and Kasper Asgreen will be marked men through the day.
Fortunes could not have been any better for the INEOS Grenadiers who hace captured wins at both Amstel Gold and De Brabantse Pijl in the last werk via Michał Kwiatkowski and Magnus Sheffield. Could the British team go on and help Filippo Ganna to Roubaix victory?
It’s a Roubaix debut for Ganna, the Italian who has been ever-present as time trial world champion and Giro d’Italia stage winner as well as pink jersey wearer. If not Ganna then INEOS will also have Tour of Flanders tunner-up to Mathieu van der Poel, Dylan Van Baarle in the running too.
One final name to add to the mix is last year’s runner-up Florian Vermeersch. The Belgian lines up for Lotto Soudal where he will hope to hang onto the wheels of the favourites just like he did to everyone’s surprise last October.
Lotto Soudal might also fancy their chances with another Belgian. Victor Campenaerts has found himself to be a decent Classics man, so why not him for the overall victory?
Any other outsiders?
AG2R-Citroën pair Oliver Naesen and former winner in 2017 Greg Van Avermaet may not possess the attacking intent of years gone by but they should never be discounted on a good day.
Another former winner from 2015 who starts for Team DSM is German rider John Degenkolb and who will be rempted to dismiss the chances of Alexander Kristoff, recent winner of Scheldeprijs. The Norwegian looked in decent shape at Flanders and he does gave a powerful sprint on him.
The next time cycling will witness cobbles will be Paris-Roubaix pavé on Stage 5 of the Tour de France. A Classics man will no doubt take the day then but it’s Roubaix a Classics specialist really wants.
The third Monument marks the end of cobbled Classics for another season. For some this could be the last throw of the dice to claim something for the season.
