Only seven games this weekend due to the FA Cup quarter finals so unsurprisingly the core teams playing are from the bottom half of the table. The action kicks off Friday night on Sky Sports at the City Ground:
Nottingham Forest v Newcastle United
It’s starting to look ominous for Nottingham Forest, they have not won their last two home games and away wins are gold dust. They currently sit in 14th place but that’s only four points off bottom. After the international break they play Wolves at home before visits to Leeds and Villa, those three fixtures are to be played in eight days and could define the rest of the season. To ease the pressure around the club, Steve Cooper needs to find a way to collect all three points on Friday night.
PL Fixture Icons
Dougie Freedman – Forest have never beaten Newcastle in the Premier League, the last meeting at the City ground was March 1999 (1-2). Freedman grabbed the consolation goal for the hosts, he spent most of his career playing for Crystal Palace but also went onto manage them, Bolton and Forest between 2011-2016.
Dietmar Hamman – The German midfield anchorman could strike the ball so sweetly and grabbed his fair share of goals during his career. During the last meeting at Forest he snatched the winner but he also holds the distinction of scoring the last goal at Wembley when playing for Germany versus England.
Game Narrative
Both sides strengths are in direct competition against each other, Newcastles defence and Forests attack. This will mean the key for either teams success will be the other end of the pitch. The pace out wide for Newcastle in Almiron and Saint-Maximin should enable them to pin back Forests fullbacks, dominate territory and create crosses for Isak or Wilson to capitalise on.
The One to Watch – Kieran Trippier
Since leaving Spurs, Trippier has played some of his best football of his career at Atletico Madrid, Newcastle and England. On Friday night his delivery from set pieces will be vital but equally the leadership of his team needs to be on point so they do not fold within the heated atmosphere created by the City Ground crowd.
Aston Villa v Bournemouth
Villa are in the flux of not being involved in the battles at either end of the table but the players have so much to play for in the form of proving their worth to manager Unai Emery. For the supporters dealing with the present will be a fun watch but they can also dream about the summer transfer activity and what the club can achieve next season. The defence is where the major investment needs to occur, the current backline is functional but not at the level to compete with City, Arsenal or United forwards. Levi Colwill, Kieran Tierney and Homam Ahmed are very high on Emery’s wish list.
PL Fixture Icons
Jordan Ayew – Surprisingly Villa have not beaten Bournemouth at their own patch, the first encounter was April 2016 (1-2). Ghanaian Ayew is listed as a attacker but his goal contribution is poor and affects games more with his energy, speed and workrate out of possession. One of his nine goals for Aston Villa came in this the defeat.
Harry Wilson – The last meeting at Villa Park (1-2) was August 2019 and Liverpool loanee Wilson scored the decisive second goal. Technically he is Premier League class but his physical traits mean his affect on games are limited to when he can find space, mainly via dead ball delivery.
Game Narrative
If Bournemouth can play at the level they have done against Arsenal and Liverpool their is no doubt they can defeat Aston Villa. What the home side will look to do on Saturday is unsettle Lerma and Rothwell in centre midfield by overloading bodies in their zone and drag Billing away from his number ten role. Lerma especially struggles with his discipline so look out for robust tackles from McGinn or Luiz on him, with the aim the Colombian bites back two fold.
The One to Watch – Ollie Watkins
Six goals in his last seven games makes him the form player on show in this match. He enjoys floating around the left wing and will feel Adam Smith is a easy target but equally if Lloyd Kelly marks Watkins too tight when balls are played into him with his back to goal the roll and shot will be profitable for the England striker.
Brentford v Leicester City
Ivan Toney grabbed a goal and a assist during the week against Southampton, proving once again he is Brentford’s key man in attack. Unfortunately for the Bees his punishment for betting is looming and its widely considered to be a multiple month ban. League safety is locked in so the impact on the club will not be season defining. Who will take his place and how the team will play are the big questions? No one within the squad can win challenges aerially or hold the ball up like Toney so it’s likely when they field the three forwards, one will be a false nine with the wide players making runs in field using their pace. This means it’s more likely Damsgaard, DaSilva or Ghoddas could see more starting minutes.
PL Fixture Icons
The only meeting at Brentfords GTech stadium was in October 2021 (1-2). James Maddison notched the second goal that day and he can boast that he’s one of the few Premier League players to score at both homes for the West Londoners, in 2018 he scored for Norwich at Griffin Park.
Game Narrative
At home Brentford like to start matches with major intent, not allowing the visitors to settle into any rhythm. To combat this tactic Leicester will need to defend in numbers deep and fully commit to the counter attack when Tete or Barnes are in possession. A big question mark is the lack of leaders within the away side, they have talented players but severely lacking any men who are willing to roll up their sleeves and fight.
The One to Watch – Harry Souttar
The Australian international will be given the job to deal with Ivan Toney and he has the height advantage on his rival. If he can dominate the matchup it will give his side a major chance to set the tone. Another area he will be called upon to deliver on is set plays both defensively, in the form of Jensens long throws and offensively where he could grab his first goal for his new team.
Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur
Defeat at home Wednesday night to Brentford was a major setback for Southampton as they’ve improved so much over the last few weeks under Ruben Selles. The energy and work rate are firmly installed but ball usage in the final third is their major flaw. They could not see off ten man Manchester United last Sunday and need to find a solution ASAP in attack. Che Adams is useful when out of possession but his place in the side may need to be given to a quicker runner like Adam Armstrong or Theo Walcott, playing off the shoulder of the centre backs, while going back to Nathan Jones tactic of playing Ward-Prowse in the ten role. Currently they have 22 points and realistically need another 14 to stay up, where those points will come from after Spurs is a problematic due to the fact that two of the remaining five home games are against Manchester City and Liverpool.
PL Fixture Icons
Neil Heaney – The former Arsenal youth product took over a year to score his first goal for Southampton but when he did it was within a winning effort in April 1995 (4-3). More about speed than skill, his raw abilities got him so far in the game but once found out he dropped swiftly down the various levels of British football. His post football career has seen him become a CEO of a solicitors practice specialising in international legal issues.
Oyvind Leonhardsen – In nine years Leonhardsen played for four Premier League teams playing 188 games and scoring 30 goals, not a bad return for a midfielder. One of his first goals for Spurs was in November 1999 against Southampton (0-1). In Norway, the expression “a Leo run” is derived from Leonhardsen’s running capacity and smart movements. His instinct for anticipation of loose balls usually presented him with scoring chances.
Game Narrative
First and foremost the home side need to compartmentalise the midweek loss from their memory banks, if the coaches, players and fans dwell on that game defeat will follow against Spurs. As we all know predicting which Tottenham team turns up game to game is a mystery but if they perform like last weekend then Southampton will be in trouble. Richarlison has been criticised for his lack of goals but he does make things happen around him and his duel with Bednarek will definitely be feisty. Fraser Forster has been adequate covering for Hugo Lloris but it’s plain to see that his foot movement is lacking these days and long range shooting by the hosts could be a viable plan.
The One to Watch – Oliver Skipp
Injuries to established first teamers has given the academy product a prolonged run in the team and he has flourished. His ball retention and eagerness to cover every blade of grass is endearing to the fans. Most likely he will be charged with monitoring Ward-Prowse.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Leeds United
Wolves are defiantly not safe from the drop, their last five game form is identical to Leeds but you feel they should have enough to survive. One thing that does seem certain is Ruben Neves will not be playing in the gold next season. He has just turned 26 and his contract runs out next summer so both parties surely will see a transfer as the logical move, the player needs to be playing in the Champions League and the club will want to cash in. The Portuguese international is that good, surely any team in Europe would want him, as a Premier League fan I hope he stays in England. Best fits to me would be Arsenal if they don’t land Declan Rice, Manchester United or Newcastle United. Stumbling block for the Geordies is if they don’t finish in the top four does the Europa League seem enticing.
PL Fixture Icons
Steffen Iversen – The first meeting between these sides in the Premier League occurred December 2003 and the home side won (3-1). Iversen scored four times during his lone season at Moulineux, one of them in this game. Only once did he achieve a double figure goal return in England, the step up in the main was too much for him and typifies club recruitment twenty years ago when taking a chance on young foreigners was the go to rather than giving club products a time to develop.
Michael Duberry – These historically renowned clubs have only shared four seasons in the Premier League including this year and since their first meeting twenty years ago they have both dropped to League One! Till Leeds return to the top flight three years ago the only man to score at Moulineux was Michael Duberry. His move to Leeds turned into a disaster on and off the pitch due to the competition for places and the Bowyer/Woodgate court case he was heavily involved in.
Game Narrative
Two goal shy clubs meeting surely will mean a high XG and nil nil draw but this season never fails to surprise me so fingers crossed it’s 3 all. Both coaches will not be happy conceding that many or drawing as they will view this fixture as winnable and are setting their sides out to be defensively resolute. Time on the ball will be very limited all around the pitch so it’s very likely whoever wins the possession battle also takes maximum points. Wolves possess the more cultured ball players between both teams so should be the favourites.
The One to Watch – Daniel Podence
Vastly underrated, he is always looking to find pockets of space between the fullbacks and centre back to run with the ball or pass into. His desire to be a nuisance in attack could be very profitable when taking on a Leeds defence which is not Premier League level.
Chelsea v Everton
Chelsea’s only chance to win something this season is in the Champions League and they enter the quarter/semi final draw as dark horses. Performances and form is improving in the league which is ominous for any prospective opponent in Europe, as this talented squad will only develop their spirit, collectiveness and tactical mindset. It’s probable Real Madrid, Manchester City and Bayern Munich end up in the same side of the draw which really gives a Napoli or Chelsea an avenue to the final. Enzo Fernandes and Joao Felix are becoming undroppable but the league will offer fringe recruit Mudryk a chance to restore some form for the big European evenings which beckon.
PL Fixture Icons
John Spencer – Despite his height the Scottish striker played like a big man, never giving defenders an easy game. He scored the winner when these side met in March 1993 (2-1) and would end up becoming a Everton player five years later.
Stuart Barlow – Stamford Bridge has never been a happy place for Everton, they’ve only won once there in the Premier League era. Stuart Barlow was often mocked during his football career earning nicknames like “Barndoor” and “Jigsaw” due to his finishing ability but in two visits to Chelsea in consecutive years he assisted in the game above and scored in Jan 1994 (4-2)
Game Narrative
It’s really hard to make a case for Everton beating Chelsea but they start the game drawing and Sean Dyche will strive to hold onto that score line. It’s extremely likely they will start with a back five, possibly bringing in Coady for his experience with McNeil making way, while Demari Gray occupies the home sides defence on his own. The strength and energy within the Toffees midfield matches up well against the ball retaining Chelsea midfield. The longer they can scrap and make life difficult for the hosts you will find the crowd becoming restless which always affects the players on the field.
The One to Watch – Alex Iwobi
Everton’s gadget man will be expected to tie up Chelsea’s left hand side in and out of possession. If he can bypass Ben Chillwell and attack Marc Cucarella then look out for a possible penalty for the visitors, the former Brighton man is no match for Iwobi and also is prone to jump into tackles.
Arsenal v Crystal Palace
When Jesus joined Arsenal in the summer I was sceptical regarding how he would perform as the main man in attack, I was wrong as he was awesome. The goals started to dry up before the World Cup but he was always contributing in all round play for the team. Countless times in matches he would drop deep hold up the ball and win his team a free kick. Since his injury Arteta had to find a solution to cover his loss and initially Nketiah was the answer. Minor knocks and form cost the Englishman his place which January arrival Trossard capitalised on. The issue for Jesus now is will he now become a squad player at Arsenal like at City? Whether they win the title or not Champions League football beckons and so will further new players to the squad which should take the form in another top level striker like Vlahovic, Martinez, Torres or Osimhen. It’s fair to say all are more natural scorers which will see the Brazilian shunted out wide or the bench like his Pep days.
PL Fixture Icons
Gilles Grimandi – Before clubs recruitment divisions decided who joined, the final decision was made by the manager. Grimandi was known to Arsenal Wenger from his time at Monaco and become one of the first signings. The intention was for him to be a squad player but his worth was so much greater, he set the culture on the training ground and could act like a coach on the pitch when needed too. One of the rare occasions he was a match winner was in February 1998 (1-0) as his goal gave Arsenal all three points.
John Salako – Two footed winger Salako scored twice in October 1994 at Highbury (1-2), this was a shock result as Palace had just been promoted back to the Premier League. A serious knee injury in 1991 blighted the rest of his career, the burst of speed had gone and it was difficult for him to play two or three games on the trot. Certainly if injury had not occurred he would have gone on to play for top six club (maybe even Arsenal) and earned more England caps.
Game Narrative
Prior to Thursday night this game had a similar feel to the Chelsea v Everton match on Saturday regarding a total mismatch but Arsenals Europa League penalty loss now levels the playing field. Tomiyasu and Saliba had to come off due to injury while the majority of league starters played for the entire 120 minutes. Fatigue will come into play Sunday afternoon as the one aspect Palace bring to the party is energy in midfield and attack. The best tactic for the home side is to start fast and solidify the victory early. In the long run departing the Europa League should be a advantage for Arsenals title challenge but for that to come into play they have to beat Palace.
The One to Watch – Martin Odergaard
The captain only took part during extra time on Thursday so will be one of the fresher players but he would still be key in this game if he’d played every minute. He makes the team tick in possession but also matches up well against the clumsy Palace centre backs Guehi and Andersen. The Norwegian is too clever for the pair and surely will use his forwards runs as decoys so he can run directly down the middle of Palaces defence.
Premier League Player Power Rankings
Fullbacks Kieran Trippier and Luke Shaw have fallen out of the top ten due to the continual excellent form of fellow Englishman Ivan Toney and Solly March. The Brighton man is unfortunate to not be called up by Gareth Southgate and probably never be as if he can’t be selected now when will he:
- Martin Odergaard non mover
- Erling Haaland up 1
- Marcus Rashford down 1
- Bakary Saka non mover
- Harry Kane non mover
- Bruno Fernandes non mover
- Ben Mee non mover
- Kaoru Mitomo up 1
- Ivan Toney new entry
- Solly March new entry
When watching matches this weekend remember Sam Allardyce once said “There are scientists who will tell you that spirit, because it can’t be measured, doesn’t exist. Bollocks. It does exist”. Over the next few months we will find out which teams at the bottom of the league have the most spirit and if that’s enough to prevent relegation.
