Featured image courtesy of Chris Auld
The time has come once again for the madness and majesty of a three week circus around France. It is literally a summer party on two wheels as the Tour de France arrives on the scene. 21 stages from Brittany across the heart of France over Alps and Pyrennes before the finale in Paris.
Pomp and ceremony of the Grand Départ gets the race underway but who will win the famous yellow jersey? The maillot jaune is synonymous to world cycling, the Tour is the sport’s showpiece event, but who will actually win the race come Paris? That is the million dollar question we ask ourselves every year, so unpredictable that nobody has an answer. If last year’s 107th edition was anything to go by, then throw all predictions out the window right now. Who could have predicted two Slovenians battling it out, one looking superior with the stronger team, only then to lose yellow on the penultimate stage.
It’s cliché every year, but you cannot win the Tour de France in week one but only lose it. A marathon not a sprint for the yellow jersey contenders, but who is in contention?
Pog versus Rog part two? The empire striking back? Or could someone else edge closer to the top step? It does look set to be another battle between two Slovenians once again. Defending champion Tadej Pogačar destroyed the final time trial atop La Planche des Belles to claim yellow off his fellow countryman’s shoulders, cruel but majestic, Pogačar became the youngest winner in 112 years, the occasion repeating 1989 Le Mond versus Fignon all over again!
Apart from a small blip at the Tour of the Basque Country, the now 22-year-old has not put a foot wrong this season. The UAE Tour, Tirreno-Adriatico and the Tour of Slovenia have all been grasped tight by Tadej Pogačar, plus an added Monument in Liège-Bastogne-Liège to his palmares. The reigning champion looks unbeatable, so how can he defend the yellow jersey?
He overturned a 57-second deficit to Roglič going into Stage 20 last year and it could be another tight edition this time around. Staying out of trouble in week one will be the key to every contender but it’s worth pointing out that Pogačar did lose time on Stage 7 to Lavaur in crosswinds last year. Making up time in the mountains was how he won the Tour doing it without the strongest team and for sure he can do it again. UAE-Team Emirates will put everything behind their leader but on paper Jumbo-Visma, the INEOS Grenadiers and Movistar are three teams that will make this year’s race harder than 2020.
No matter how strong your team is, do not underestimate Tadej Pogačar’s individual brilliance. Time trialling is a given advantage as well as climbing. He’ll also be an unknown quantity for other contenders as he decided to skip both the Criterium du Dauphiné and the Tour de Suisse, opting for his home Tour of Slovenia. Avoiding any problems in week one, holding on and attacking alongside the collective strength of other teams, that is how Tadej Pogačar will defend his yellow jersey.
Where one Slovenian shined bright another felt low. One can only think what emotions were running through the head of Primož Roglič. Among the dizzying heights of the Vosges mountains, there was confidence that you had the strongest team, you were looking on course to dominate, and yet a younger compatriot snatched yellow from you. The mental game must have been tough but in Roglič you have a two-times Vuelta champion. Now is surely the time he seals his destiny to win the Tour?
Nine months on from La Planche des Belles Filles it’s a case of go again for Jumbo-Visma, who were by far the dominant team ahead of INEOS but in the end had nothing to show for it. That was the sour taste left within the mouth but will it be a sweet one come Paris in 2021? Winning a second Vuelta title showed a bounce back attitude and so far in 2021 he actually put time into Tadej Pogačar in a TT at the Basque Country.
Jumbo-Visma will arrive with one of the strongest teams but to add further complications they won’t have just Tadej Pogačar to deal with. INEOS will be back with huge anounts of redemption in their machine and could a lack of racing in the legs actually hamper Roglič’s chances? He’s decided to keep a low profile with no competition alongside other yellow jersey contenders, it could yet prove a risky choice.
Yet you cannot dismiss Primož Roglič from being the one challenger who can take the race to INEOS and beat Tadej Pogačar. Putting things right after letting his firm grip of the maillot jaune go will be the motivation but one must not forget that he even showed signs of struggle in latter stages to seal the Vuelta.
It won’t just be a Pog versus Rog part two at this year’s Tour but that is obviously going to dominate the discussion on social media over the next three weeks. Trying to isolate Pogačar on the climbs will be difficult unless he suffers hugely. It could be the case that when both Jumbo-Visma and the INEOS Grenadiers go head-to-head, Primož Roglič et al might find Pogačar to be like an irritating fly that they cannot swat away. All hope to distance the youngster might prove unfruitful.
Two TT’s on his side, Roglič can win this Tour but it’s going to be a different challenge compared to last year.
2020 was a rare beast not just because of a pandemic but because we saw the INEOS Grenadier (Team Sky previously) yellow jersey dominance snap. Egan Bernal suffered, the team did recover a glorious stage win for Michał Kwiatkowski, but a miserable chink in Bernal’s armour being a back injury left the team in a position they hadn’t experienced since Chris Froome crashed out in 2014.
Now the empire is back to rectify the defeat, could it be a repeat of 2015? Avoid any hold-ups in week one, set off in the mountains and then defend the yellow jersey by suffocating the opposition. That will be INEOS gameplan but it won’t be simple. Geraint Thomas is perfectly capable of winning a second Tour de France but he’ll know more than anyone else that tactics can go out of the window if things go astray. The Welshman has shown the form to get here, the sacrifice you make as a sports personality and now it all comes down to luck, doing your best to try and win the Tour.
How will INEOS play the race? Geraint Thomas has already finished third at the Dauphiné alongside the race winner Richie Porte, the Australian himself taking third overall at the Tour last year. Porte has re-joined INEOS full in the knowledge that his dream of making a Grand Tour podium has come true, but now he resumes his super domestique role for Thomas and others.
The strength of the team makes them the strongest, but with the strength they have Jumbo-Visma can match. While INEOS have Luke Rowe as road captain, the Dutch team have Tony Martin (they’re friends now) . While INEOS have Richie Porte, the Dutch team have Sepp Kuss. Jonathan Castroviejo versus Wout Van Aert in the mountains also makes for a tasty encounter. What makes the INEOS Grenadiers slightly superior is the cards they have to play. Yes Sepp Kuss is an option to try and question everyone else in the mountains, but they don’t have two former Giro d’Italia champions in the their ranks. Both Tao Geoghegan Hart and Richard Carapaz ride the Tour, Geoghegan Hart making his Tour debut, Carapaz his second start.
Richie Porte is not going to ride for yellow but in Geoghegan Hart and recent Tour de Suisse winner Carapaz, what roles will they both play? Tao Geoghegan Hart will no doubt be a loyal domestique but for Carapaz, it’s a curious situation where he’s been here before with Movistar, the Giro d’Italia won by him instead of being taken by the scruff of the neck by Mikel Landa.
Joint leadership between Carapaz and Thomas? This could be history repeating itself. If Geraint Thomas rides well and Richard Carapaz does too, it will come down to who has the best legs when it matters most. Hopefully freak weather won’t disrupt the outcome of the race, 2019 was a moment of deja vua where Thomas could have easily won the Tour again, but Egan Bernal winning yellow was the situation he had to accept. INEOS are the team to beat but there could yet be an internal battle.
Who else is in contention to make a stand in the GC? The ambition to win the Tour de France is always there but who can realistically challenge for a podium place?
Wilco Kelderman for Bora-Hansgrohe finished third at the Giro last year and can definately be seen as Tom Dumoulin’s long lost brother, another skinny Dutchman who is steady in the mountains and can time trial. Fourth in the recent Dauphiné, a top five on GC is possible if luck falls by his side. He also has team-mate Emanuel Buchmann, who has had an unfortunate season so far after crashing out the Giro, but a stage win might be a possibility.
Who knows what the leadership responsibilities will be at Movistar, but they’ve selected two names who are equally capable of making the podium in Miguel Ángel López, stage winner last year, and Spaniard Enric Mas. At the 2018 Vuelta they were both rivals who finished behind Simon Yates on the podium, now they’re team-mates, so who gets the leadership? One would say López but Mas finished fifth at both the Tour and Vuelta last season, he seems the consistent one to back. Then comes Marc Soler who can win Paris-Nice and be magnificent one minute, disastrous the next. At 41-years-of-age, Alejandro Valverde starts his 14th Tour but isn’t going to win yellow.
Rigoberto Uràn for EF Education Nippo has to be a decent shout for a top-ten. The Colombian produced a brilliant time trial stage win at the Tour de Suisse but can he contend alongside everyone else? Time trialling is one of his strengths but could we see another rejuvenated performance by Uràn in the mountains? In 2017 he finished second behind Chris Froome with one stage win in Chambéry, a top five is possible, if not, more stage victories are on the cards.
What about the French? With no Thibaut Pinot riding for Groupama-FDJ, the pressure is perhaps off the shoulders of young David Gaudu but arrives with more lead out men for Arnaud Démare than domestiques for the mountains. He will be isolated when the going gets tough but if he can hang on and claim a top-ten on GC coupled with a stage, it’ll be a good Tour for the 24-year-old.
We’ll also get to see Julian Alaphilippe showing off his beautiful world champion jersey at this Tour. A GC contender? The route favours him as he can time trial and climb, but the high Alpine summits on Stages 8 and 9 should prove to be too hard. The Pyrennes in week three too is not Julian Alaphilippe territory, yet 2019 showed us something we never expected he could do. It’s unlikely that the French drought at this year’s Tour will end, the wait since 1985 dragging on again but you just never know with Julian Alaphilippe.
Astana-PremierTech will once again be backing Jakob Fuglsang, who has ridden 15 grand tours and has never finished better than sixth overall. Nothing can take away his wins in one-day races, but the chances of Fuglsang pulling on yellow is remote. Like so many riders, eyes will be fixed on Tokyo and that includes Trek-Segafredo’s Vincenzo Nibali. The legend of Italian cycling isn’t at the Tour for GC, but stage wins, maybe a polka dot jersey, preparation for Tokyo is his ambition.
Nibali is one of three former Grand Tour winners who arrive at this year’s Tour with fan expectations shifting away from yellow towards other prizes. Colombian mountain goat, 2014 Giro and 2016 Vuelta champion Nairo Quintana is way past his best, the rider who was tipped to be the next great Colombian to finally win the Tour de France. Egan Bernal beat him to it, yet Quintana cannot be dismissed as a fad. Stage winner at each of the three grand tours, could more come his way this June/July?
Last but not least, a mention must go to a rider who has dominated for so long, the best grand tour rider of his generation, yet his grip on the yellow jersey now sadly a thing of the past. Humble, committed, a gent on and off the bike and undoubtedly a very lucky man, Chris Froome is back at the Tour de France after two years away since his horror crash at the Dauphiné, his recovery nothing short of a miracle. A four-times winner of the Tour, seven-times a grand tour winner, a fifth Tour de France is extremely unlikely but more than anything it is a delight to see him back riding a bike and giving it the best shot possible. Not giving up is an achievement in itself. Israel-Start Up Nation do have Michael Woods and Dan Martin alongside Chris Froome, ambitions for yellow are remote but working together to gain some stages or maybe help Woods on GC should be the plan.
These are just a selection of names who could win the Tour and those who won’t. How will the 2021 Tour de France play out on the road?
Given what we’ve seen building up to the Grand Départ, INEOS have the strongest team, while Jumbo-Visma and UAE-Emirates have the two best riders. Team depth is one thing but internal rivalry might be hard to handle. Geraint Thomas has won the Tour de Romandie while Richard Carapaz impressed at the Tour de Suisse. Tao Geoghegan Hart added in means we have a team of riders who’ve all finished on a grand tour podium last season plus a former winner of the Tour de France – how that works remains to be seen.
Jumbo-Visma destroyed the INEOS Grenadier hold of the Tour last year right up until the La Planches des Belles Filles time trial on the penultimate day. Primož Roglič had yellow stolen off his shoulders with Pogačar producing a phenomenal ride. Lessons will have been learnt but can the Dutch team destroy INEOS this time with stronger riders?
The big aim for both Jumbo-Visma and INEOS will be to isolate and put as much pressure on Pogačar. New kid on the block last year, defending champion, can he cope? The talent he has won’t be the issue at this Tour. This is Tadej Pogačar we’re talking about!
On the road, the Mûr-de-Bretagne stage on only day two and, certainly, the flat time trial on Stage 5 will open up the first time gaps on GC before the race heads into the Alps to conclude week one.
Mont Ventoux on stage 12 as the giant of the Provence is not to missed. Tackled twice before the finale is a flying descent into Malaucène, whoever wins that stage will make a statement for sure. The Pyrenees provide the mother of all showdowns at this year’s Tour de France. Stage 15 presents another downhill finale, but both stage 17 and stage 18 are mountain goat material with summit to the Col du Portet and Luz-Ardiden
Before Paris comes the final ITT and just like last year it is sure to be tense. Pogačar dreamed big as Roglič cracked on La Plache des Belle Filles but no uphill finish this year, means an undulating race of 30.8 km from Libourne to Saint-Émilion should be ideal for Geraint Thomas to seal a second Tour de France. Not since Chris Froome’s third yellow jersey in 2016 has a Tour champion won by over two minutes, the margins are getting narrow edition after edition – the 2021 Tour could be the closest one we’ve seen for years.
All in all, two Slovenians and INEOS Grenadiers look a cut above the rest. This is the Tour de France, cycling’s showpiece event. Three weeks of ups and downs are about to begin.
