Featured image courtesy of REUTERS/Stephane Mahe/File Photo
The final week of the 108th Tour de France has arrived, the Grand Départ in Brittany now seems an age away. The Alps have been climbed, Mont Ventoux crested twice and the sprints have seen Mark Cavendish dominate bar one victory from Tim Merlier. At the start in Brest, 3,414.4 km was the total distance for this Tour, 823.3 km are left before the curtain closing finale in Paris. Here’s a reminder of the route map.
So what can expect from the third and final week of racing? Below is a stage-by-stage run down with all the details, some profiles and riders to watch from stages 16 to 21. No more rest days remain between the Pyrennes and Paris. The final conclusion to see who will win the yellow jersey, other competitions and last opportunities for a stage win are about to be revealed.
Stage 16: Pas de la Case – Saint-Girons (Tuesday 13th July) Mountain
At 169 km, this looks set to be perfect for a breakaway. Stage 16 begins at the Pas de la Case, a commune on the Andorran/French border, where the riders literally descend the Col de Puymorens, which they climbed on Stage 15. The start should be relatively stress free, although taking it easy on the downhill is always advisable.
A break should form on the valley roads that come as the route passes through Ax-les-Thermes and Tarascon-sur-Ariège. The first climb of the day comes at the Col du Port, quite long at 17 km with an average gradient of 4.6% – expect the sprinters to be dropped already by this point.
Up next is the Col de la Core, which is an ascent of 14 km at 6.3% but the climbing doesn’t stop with the infamous Col de Portet d’Aspet featuring it’s hellish 5.4 km length with an average gradient at 7.1% but hard steep sections in the last 1.4 km going up to almost 10%. The descent will pay homage to Fabio Casartelli, who crashed on the Portet-d’Aspet descent in the 1995 Tour de France. The Olympic champion of 1992 lost consciousness and his injuries proved to be fatal. The Portet-d’Aspet was also a descent that saw Philippe Gilbert unexpectedly crashed down the side of a wall into a ravine by overcooking a corner. Gilbert got back on his bike but eventually had to abandon due to a fractured knee cap.
The summit of the Portet d’Aspet is 30 km away from the finish line in Saint-Gaudens. It’s a flat, slightly downhill course until a 1 km climb at 5% could turn out to be decisive in terms of the stage win. The Côte d’Asperet-Sarrat will suit an attacker from the breakaway but will succeed on Stage 16?
One would think that world champion Julian Alaphilippe might fancy his chances. Alaphilippe is the only French rider to have won so far at this Tour, Stage 1 at Landerneau to pull on the first yellow jersey. Thomas De Gendt for Lotto Soudal has freedom all the time to try a vintage De Gendt triumph, but what about Alaphilippe’s Quick Step team-mate Mattia Cattaneo, the Italian has been getting into breaks and rocketing up the climbs recently.
The battle for the polka-dot jersey will absolutely hot up on this stage. Wout Poels, Nairo Quintana, Michael Woods and Wout Van Aert should all be expected to attack early on to get in the break and score points. A GC battle on the Portet-d’Aspet is unlikely. Someone might try a move, but Stage 16 isn’t as significant a stage compared to what’s to come.
Stage 17: Muret – Saint-Lary-Soulan, Col du Portet (Wednesday 14th July) Summit Finish
Bastille Day can mean only one thing, a stage that provides drama, destruction and suffering. 177km starting in Muret, it traverses the flat roads outside the mountains before heading to Bagnères-de-Luchon for the intermediate sprint. Luchon can mean only one thing too, the mighty Peyresourde.
The Col de Peyresourde is a 13.2 km long climb which goes up at 7% before a 10.5 km downhill immediately leads onto the Col de Val Louron-Azet, 7.4 km climb at 8.3%. Straight after the descent the long and hard finish climb kicks in. The gradient on the Col du Portet hardly falls below 8%. It is a steady ascent of 16 km long with a brutal finale, as the last kilometre rises at 10% to the line. The Portet averages 8.7%.
Three years ago the Tour de France served a Pyrenees stage with the same climbs, but it was much shorter, namely 65 km. Nairo Quintana soloed to victory that day, while Geraint Thomas extended his GC lead.
This will be a huge day for every GC contender mainly because it’s the one of few occasions in the Pyrennes to gain time. For the pure bred climbers the stakes are even higher, as they will probably face time losses in the Stage 20 time trial. Jonas Vingegaard has been the only rider who has dropped Tadej Pogačar until now. Probably, Jumbo-Visma will come up with a cunning plan to isolate the Slovenian, but as his lead is more than 5 minutes, the attacks should come early, probably as soon as the penultimate climb. Expect Ineos and EF Education-Nippo to hammer home some pressure too.
For the stage, Bastille Day always is a motivation for French riders to get in the break. Maybe Pierre Rolland but what about Groupama-FDJ’s David Gaudu, the GC has gone for him, so stage wins are now his only way to gain success.
Stage 18 Pau – Luz Ardiden (Thursday 15th July) Summit Finish
At 130 km, the final mountain stage of this year’s Tour is a short one. Pau is synonymous with the Tour, this being the 73rd time the city has hosted the race. The first phase of the race traverses the foothills of the Pyrenees, although it’s nowhere near flat, the terrain is not seriously climbing either. The Côte de Notre-Dame-de-Piétat and the Côte de Loucrup are just the tasters before the high terrain kicks in.
The second phase of the race begins in Sainte-Marie-de-Campan, where the riders tackle the Col du Tourmalet for the 88th time in the history of the Tour. On this side the ascent totals 17.1 km, while the average gradient sits at 7.1%. The first third is relatively easy, but from the seventh kilometre onward the gradient never drops below 8%.
The riders fly down into Luz-Saint-Sauveur to tackle the last climb of this entire Tour de France. The ascent into Luz-Ardiden is 13.3 km long and averages 7.4%. The fourth and fifth kilometre before the finish are particularly steep, so this could be a sector to strike.
Every time the Col du Tourmalet has been climbed, compelling racing has always happened ever since it was first introduced in 1910. Obviously, the key question will be: are the climbers capable to distance the better time trialists such as Pogačar and Vingegaard? If anyone it’s Rigoberto Urán who should be attacking more than others to put the maillot jaune under pressure. The Colombian is a decent time trialist, so gaining time against the clock isn’t beyond him.
Whatever situation Tadej Pogačar finds himself in after Stage 17, Stage 18 is the last chance for anyone to stop him. None of the other GC men, apart from Urán, pose a serious threat in a time trial.
For the stage win it could be won by a GC man but the break could again take the honour. Bauke Mollema and Michael Woods have so much freedom with their teams, and expect both Stages 17 and 18 really see a dogfight for points to crown the King of the Mountains of this Tour.
Stage 19: Mourenx – Libourne (Friday 16th July) Flat
It has been awhile since Mourenx last saw a Tour de France peloton. Following finishes in 1969 and 1970, the race set off from the village in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques department in 1999 and 2005.
Stage 19 sees the riders head in an almost straight line to the north for a likely bunch sprint in Libourne, east of Bordeaux. 203 km means it is a long day but should be a day of calm for the peloton before a possibly sprint. Libourne was used twice as a finish in the Tour de France, both times in a time trial. Jacques Anquetil powered to triumph in 1957, while Panasonic won a team time trial in 1992.
This stage will suit the fast men but because this is the third week, expect the attackers to have their way also. It’s always a risky investment for sprint teams to control the breakaway, and even more so in the last week of a grand tour. Riders are drained of energy after three weeks of racing so another thing to think about is not all teams will still have their fast finisher in their ranks, so there are less candidates to share the work load with. Nacer Bouhanni is out of the race, Tim Merlier has long gone, but Jasper Philipsen does remain in the race.
Two things could happen on Stage 19, the sprint teams take the attackers on a leash in order to offer their leader the opportunity to shine, or the breakaway is allowed leeway and one of them outguns the others, possibly in a group sprint, or else with a late attack. It wouldn’t be a surprise if we see a rider like Jasper Stuyven or Greg Van Avermaet go up the road.
Stage 20: Libourne – Saint-Emilion (Saturday 17th July) Individual time trial
The penultimate stage for the second year running is a time trial. From Libourne to Saint-Émilion it’s nowhere near the same as La Planche des Belles Filles last year in terms of terrain, but it’s still going to be a nervy day for everyone.
Saint-Émilion hosted the Tour de France once before. In 1996, the medieval wine town was used as finish in a 63.5 kilometer ITT from Bordeaux. Jan Ullrich took the spoils, but it was not enough to win the GC the next day in Paris. The German finished second behind Bjarne Ris, while Richard Virenque rounded out that year’s podium.
Last year’s Stage 20 time trial to La Planche des Belles Filles on the penultimate day of action came to a dramatic conclusion with Tadej Pogačar winning the GC ahead of Primož Roglič, who had been imperious during three weeks of racing. Is the final battle going to be as exciting on the roads to Saint-Émilion?
The vineyard setting of the race close to Bordeaux will remind fans of Fabian Cancellara winning a TT here back in 2010. Could it be second time lucky for Stefan Küng as a proud Swiss time trialist, the current European TT champion, who can power around a course with no problems at all? On the Stage 5 TT he was edged out by Pogačar, the look on his face one of surprise and disbelief. Another Swiss rider who can put in a decent TT is Stefan Bisseger and do not discount Wout Van Aert from winning the stage.
Unless anything changes, Tadej Pogačar will wear the yellow skin suit for the first time in his career. Get round the course with no problems, seal your destiny and secure a second Tour de France. It sounds simple but even if Tadej Pogačar still has a wide five minute lead by Stage 20, nerves will still play a factor.
Stage 21: Chatou – Paris Champs-Élysées (Sunday 18th July) Flat
At last the final curtain closes on another Tour de France. The final showdown, the calm start in Chatou, the relief to finally ride onto the Champs-Élysées, you’ve made it to Paris.
Three weeks of hard racing from Brittany, over the Alps, sprints and the Pyrennes – it all comes down to the holy grail of sprints for the fast men who’ve made it. 108.4 km starting in Chatou, which is just 13 km from the Champs-Élysées itself, on the banks of the Seine.
Get ready for the traditional small glass of champagne, maybe a cigar, a photo shoot with your best mates, a very slow pace, it’s a celebration, a parade to mark the end of another fantastic edition of the Tour. It all looks calm and friendly at first but the it ends when the riders hit the cobbles on the Champs-Élysées. Acceleration, fighting for position, expect a few brave souls to go in a break, there’s points to be settled at the intermediate sprint.
Stage 21 concludes the 108th Tour with eight fast laps of almost 7 km. For four consecutive years Mark Cavendish was the fastest sprinter in Paris, but that was a while ago in the period between 2009-2012. In subsequent years Marcel Kittel (2013, 2014), André Greipel (2015, 2016), Dylan Groenewegen (2017), Alexander Kristoff (2018), Caleb Ewan (2019), and Sam Bennett (2020) powered to victory.
Could this be the perfect setting where Cavendish beats the all-time record set by Eddy Merckx. There’s hope that Cav can make it over the Pyrenees to make it to Paris, if he wins on the Champs-Élysées for the fifth time in green it will be ten years to the day since he won the mailot vert overall. This could be a huge historical day for the Tour de France.
Once every rider is over the line, it’s relief. The podium presentations conclude the Tour, the jerseys all given out for one final time, and then the yellow jersey is crowned alongside the second and third-placed riders.
21 stages completed, 3,414.4 km ridden, another year of the Tour de France comes to an end.
