Tour de France 2025 preview: Pogacar vs Vinegaard Part Five

Here we go again, another edition of the Tour de France, the second of three grand tours, three-weeks long and a yellow jersey to be won.

Tadej Pogacar is the best cyclist of his generation, and yet Jonas Vinegaard has actually managed to beat him twice to win yellow. Who will win the maillot jaune this time around?

It is five years since Pogacar’s first-ever Tour win. The pandemic edition held in September 2020 was at a time when the world was turned on its head – nonetheless cycling fans will never forget the day Pogacar excelled and his Slovenian compatriot Primoz Roglic capitulated in yellow on the slopes of La Planche des Belles Filles.

That mountain time trial is set in legendary stone and since then Pogacar has gone on to win two more Tours. A three-times Tour winner in 2020, 2021 and 2024, Flanders champion twice, the only rider in history to win the Triple Crown in the same year as well as two Monument races.

Giro-Tour double champion, world champion, Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Lombardy winner all in the same year – 2024 was a blast for Tadej Pogacar, 2025 has been a somewhat straightforward objective.

Now a two-times Tour of Flanders winner, targeting the Tour de France once again is his aim, to become a four-times yellow jersey wearer on the podium in Paris, but not if Jonas Vinegaard can help it as the mind games have already begun.

In two intervening years, the Dane has come out on top due to a supreme team in Visma Lease a Bike and also because Vinegaard is a world-class climber. He is an entirely different character to Pogacar, where he may lack flair and bravado, but climbs smart, attacks with strength and gets valued support by the team.

Strength in numbers

During this year’s Giro d’Italia, Visma Lease a Bike had strength for Simon Yates to take the overall pink jersey. Team tactics worked a treat, Yates bided his time to become the third British winner of the Giro, and not for the first time, Wout van Aert played a starring role.

Yates winning the Giro was a triumph, he’s riding this Tour in support of Jonas Vinegaard, and therefore has added motivation along Van Aert. The Belgian will get his opportunities at this Tour with quite a few punchy stages littered with hills too difficult for pure sprinters – but that’s another story.

Teamwork is where Vinegaard can thrive at this year’s Tour as it remains a slight weakness for Pogacar’s UAE Team Emirates. The roster has many riders of excellent quality but quite a few are not exactly riders who like to sacrifice themselves for others.

Portuguese rider Joao Almeida has been in top form this season to win overall at the Tour of the Basque Country, Romandie and Suisse, but the big question mark – is he willing to sacrifice himself at the service of his team leader?

Almeida is capable of winning a grand tour, if we don’t forget the 2020 Giro as an example where he was in pink for quite a long time before it all went pear shaped. Third overall at the Giro in 2023, Almeida is one to watch as soon as the high mountains rise – super domestique or someone who can keep up to make the podium or more.

On a similar note to strength in numbers, like Jonas Vinegaard, Remco Evenepoel is backed by a strong team, although at Soudal Quick-Step he is sharing leadership duties with sprinter Tim Merlier.

The Belgian was third overall behind the two leading spartans last year and as evidenced at the Dauphine recently, Evenepoel is still a step below the very top when it comes to winning a Tour de France. Yes he won the Vuelta in 2022 but that is three years ago now. Where the next grand tour triumph comes, remains to be seen.

Alongside Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic is on paper the best of the rest to try and make the podium behind Vinegaard and Pogacar. Roglic has four Vuelta titles and a Giro win, but yellow has always eluded him. At the age of 35 time is not on his side and if he remarkably pulled off a Tour de France win, he’ll be the oldest post-war winner of the Tour. Australian Cadel Evans holds the record when he claimed yellow aged 34 in 2011.

Not a lot to separate

Pogacar and Vinegaard are the leading contenders but are evenly matched.

On paper Vinegaard has the stronger team to count on in the mountains and while Pogacar can count on Almeida and Adam Yates. Then again, Pogacar is so strong he rearely need a team to win anyway.

Soloing to wins at Strade Bianche, Flanders, Fleche Wallonne and Liege-Bastogne-Liege is what he can do, although what will comfort Jonas Vinegaard is what happened in 2023 – that famous Stage 17 to the summit of Col de la Loze when Pogacar said on the radio: “I’m gone, I’m dead.”

Pogacar cracked to the pressure of Jumbo-Visma that day and Visma Lease a Bike will look to do the same as they did in 2022 on the climb to Hautacam in the Pyrenees. Nonetheless, Pogacar struck back last year to win six stages and left Vinegaard in second six minutes down and Evenepoel a further three minutes in third, but worth noting that both the Dane and Belgian were hampered by crashes at the Tour of the Basque Country – neither were fully recovered on the Tour de France startline last year.

This year’s Tour asks a question – can Vinegaard and Evenepoel improve to get closer to Pogacar or will the Slovenian just ride into a league of his own?

If the Dauphine was anything to go by, on both summit finishes Pogacar launched attacks early, the rest of the field was obliterated and only Vinegaard could briefly follow before letting go of Pogacar’s wheel.

A warm up for the Grand Depart

The 112th edition of the Tour de France starts in Lille and ends in Paris on Sunday July 27. Six mountain stages including trips to the Pyrennes and Alps as well as the famous summit of Mont Ventoux lies in wait across 3,320km of racing.

Two individual time trials including a mountain test atop Peyragudes on Stage 13 will be unmissable to watch. Sprinters get their opportunity too as well as a fair amount of stages full of hills for punchier rides to attack and aim for a stage win.

The Criterium du Dauphine and Tour de Suisse as two of the main warm up races for the Tour de France were closely watched, where the Dauphine had broader appeal due to Pogacar, Vinegaard and Evenepoel all on the start line.

Pogacar took three stages and the overall classification and Vinegaard finished second, one minute behind. Evenpoel started the Dauphine in hot form to win the only time trial but was then outclassed by both his rivals.

One word to write on Primoz Roglic. A tough start to the season in the Algarve but bouncing back to win the overall and two stages at the Volta a Catalunya, the Slovenian was looking good for a second Giro d’Italia title before crashing out.

His Red Bull Bora Hansgrohe teammate Florian Lipowitz performed well at the Dauphine to finish third overall, an impressive result for the young 24-year-old. Lipowitz will be key mountain domestique, which means combining with Roglic could make for an interesting watch.