It’s been 4138 days since shockwaves spread across the footballing world when then-FIFA President, Sepp Blatter, revealed Qatar as hosts for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, a controversial decision to say the least.
Following that contentious day in December 2010, there has been years of debate over stripping Qatar of their rights, not only considerable evidence of bribery in the bidding process, but on issues of human rights, treatment of migrant workers and attitudes towards LGBTQ+ fans to name a few controversies.
It’s been a bumpy 10 years but fast forward to April 2022 and we have eight groups decided for the World Cup scheduled to kick off on 21st November 2022 – a divisive decision made to avoid play during Qatar’s intensive summer heat, but will likely cause disruptions to the domestic winter calendar back home.
The Draw:
Jermaine Jenas was joined by a delegation of footballing stars and journalists, including two-time World Cup winner for the USA Carly Lloyd and Brazilian legend Cafu, to reveal the fates of the 37 countries in the draw as qualifications are still underway with two intercontinental play offs and one European play off to take place in June 2022;
- Intercontinental Play Off 1: Australia/UAE (AFC) vs Peru (CONMEBOL)
- Intercontinental Play Off 2: New Zealand (OFC) vs Costa Rica (CONCACAF)
- European Play Off: Scotland/Ukraine vs Wales
For the first time, the draw was conducted on rankings (previously it was a mixture of rankings of geographical locations to avoid ‘constraints’), so why not wait until all qualifications were completed, as you’d have a very different draw depending on which countries secured the final 3 spots?
In the latest FIFA rankings, revealed in March, Wales are ranked 18th, meaning qualification would put have placed them in Pot 2. Understandably Scotland v Ukraine’s play off has been pushed back to June, but for this draw they were in Pot 4, leaving the overall winner amongst the three teams in Group B, highlighting how different the draw could have been if post qualification.
The premature draw left many teams jumping groups due to confederation constraints, causing a lot of head scratching, including my personal questioning of Portugal’s position in Pot 1 which was the result of Italy’s failure to qualify. However, I believe the three European countries requiring play offs – Portugal being one – should automatically be allocated Pot 4, instead of Pot 1 with the possibility of a more favourable draw.
Final Draw:
Group A: Qatar, Ecuador, Senegal, The Netherlands
Group B: England, IR Iran, USA, European Play Off (Scotland/Ukraine or Wales)
Group C: Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Poland
Group D: France, Intercontinental Play Off 1 (Australia/UAE or Peru) , Denmark, Tunisia
Group E: Spain, Intercontinental Play Off 2 (New Zealand or Costa Rica), Germany, Japan
Group F: Belgium, Canada, Morocco, Croatia
Group G: Brazil, Serbia, Switzerland, Cameroon
Group H: Portugal, Ghana, Uruguay, Korea Republic
England’s Chances:
England will play the Islamic Republic of Iran, USA and either Wales, Scotland or Ukraine in Group B.
On paper it is a favourable group and one England should relish, but we have history of making hard work of ‘easy groups’. In 2010 World Cup in South Africa, we found a way to finish second in a group of Algeria, Slovenia and USA.
IR Iran will be stern opponents in England’s first game, they didn’t disgrace themselves in 2018 and were just 1 point off qualifying from Group B, which contained Portugal and Spain. They won 8 out of 10 games in their AFC qualifying group for this edition, conceding just 4 goals in 10 games.
England will also keen to banish the memories of Rob Green’s howler in 2010 when they take on the USA. Arguably the weaker of the teams, the USMNT scraped through the CONCACAF qualifying on goal difference thanks in part to the 5-1 thrashing of Panama in their penultimate game.
All eyes though are on a potential mouth-watering clash against Scotland or Wales, but don’t discount Ukraine, all three nations have merits on claiming that final European play-off spot. This match will be the final one in the group stages and could be all to play for progressing into knockouts.
The Other Groups:
Of the remaining seven groups, reigning champions France and Argentina should be satisfied, although like England, France have a tendency to overthink when it comes to ‘easier games’. They were mediocre in the group stages of 2018 when playing Australia, Peru and Switzerland and benefited from some questionable VAR decisions before going from strength to strength in the knockout rounds. France should progress but I wouldn’t be surprised if they hit a few stumbling blocks in the early stages.
Spain and Belgium, I imagine would be quite disappointed with their draws. Spain, despite being in Pot 1, have drawn Germany, which follows the last two World Cups where they had The Netherlands (2014) and Portugal (2018). Japan could also prove to be tricky opponents despite their disappointing qualifying, finishing second to Saudi Arabia. The Samurai Blue took Belgium to extra time in 2018 so I would be cautious to undermine Japan.
The so-called golden generation of Belgium, boasting the likes of Kevin de Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, have never translated their potential in tournaments. They have a tricky group of Croatia, Morocco and Canada – who are making their first appearance since 1986 – and should they progress, they’ll play one of the teams from Group E, meaning it could very well be an early exit for Belgium.
Overall thoughts:
I’m optimistic of progressing into Round 16 and looking at Group A – where our next team lie, should England qualify – it is a pretty favourable match up.
There are a lot of expectations on this England team after the Euro 2020 heartbreak, especially as our own golden generation will lose some of their most experienced players over the next few years. With the increasing talent amongst the youth players, it isn’t a question of now or never, but you get the feeling if England miss out in 2022, it could be quite a while before securing international glory.
