Featured image courtesy of TOMMASO PELAGALLI | Credit: AFP via Getty Images
Why are the five Monument races the best to watch? At Milan-Sanremo, the Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix, Liège–Bastogne–Liège and Il Lombardia, you have five one-day races where each and every rider has one chance. No multiple stages to rectify any mistakes – this is it!
To start, Milan-Sanremo is literally called the “Spring Classic”, a race that officially begins the Spring calendar of racing. From here up until Liège–Bastogne–Liège, an action-packed peloton of one-day Springtime bike racing is upon us.
So what will the 2022 Milano-Sanremo bring? “La Classicissima” like every Monument is such a lottery to predict who will win and that’s the beauty of cycling. One-day races attract puncheurs, sprinters and climbers who can definately try their hand at finishing high on a Grand Tour general classification.
For Milan-Sanremo, we have attack-minded climbers who can sprint, a few pure sprinters who will hope for a bunch sprint on the Via Roma and finally Grand Tour contenders.
To make this 113th edition of Milan-Sanremo extra special we actually have contenders who could for the first time since 1996 attack on the Cipressa, around 20km out from the finish.
What’s the route and who are the contenders?
The route
It won’t have any impact on the race, but for the first time in two years we actually have the former Milan-Sanremo route. The Passo del Turchino was missed out due to the pandemic and a landslide but now it’s back on the map. It’s not hard at 25km long with an average gradient of 1.4% – more like a false flat than a climb!
Below is the route map.
293km in total, the riders will reach the Ligurian coast after the Turchino descent. Once the Mediterranean comes into view, it’s officially the halfway mark.
The route continues to the west until the Capo Mele, Capo Cerva and Capo Berta confront the riders with another minor challenge. The attraction of the capi is that the race finally starts to catch fire by now. There are almost 40km remaining after the Capo Berta.
Tension for road position will rise when the riders move through San Lorenzo al Mare, the village at the foot of the Cipressa. The ascent is 5.5km long and the average gradient sits at 4.1%. Usually, the sprinters are struggling on the Cipressa, notably in the 9% section halfway up the climb.
As mentioned above, no rider has ever attacked on the Cipressa to win Milan-Sanremo since 1996 when a rare breakaway containing Alexander Gontchenkov (Roslotto-ZG Mobili), Gabriele Colombo (Gewiss-Playbus), Max Sciandi (Motorola) and Michele Coppolillo (Maglificio-Technogym) got off the front with 25km remaining. Colombo won that day.
Still 20km remain at the top of the Cipressa and as the riders descend back to the coast, it’s the Poggio di San Remo that is the key climb of the race. 3.7km long and an average of 3.7%, while the steepest ramp – 8% – appears 1km before the summit. A 3.3km descent flies down into San Remo before the last 2.2km of Milan-San Remo are flat.
The Poggio has always been decisive in the last five editions, whether by an attack of a small group or a solo effort. The recent winners on the Via Roma were Jasper Stuyven (2021), Wout Van Aert (2020), Julian Alaphilippe (2019), Vincenzo Nibali (2018) and Michał Kwiatkowski (2017). The last pure sprinter to win Milan-Sanremo was Arnaud Démare (2016) and only two British names have won, Tom Simpson (1964) and THAT remarkable victory for Mark Cavendish (2009).
Below is the route profile.
Who are the contenders?
Milan-San Remo’s old label ‘sprinters classic’ seems to be outdated because the last five editions were all won by attackers.
We have to go back to 2016 for the last bunch sprint on the Via Roma in San Remo. Arnaud Démare on the winning end as the Frenchman succeeded John Degenkolb, who in turn superseded Alexander Kristoff.
On the last five occasions the Poggio has proved too much for most riders. Last year, Julian Alaphilippe attacked and was followed by Wout Van Aert before Mathieu Van der Poel came across with nine more riders. The group plunged down towards San Remo and before reaching the city it was Jasper Stuyven who jumped clear.
Søren Kragh Andersen rejoined him and the Dane pushed hard, while the Belgian played it cool. He sat in the wheels and kicked again in the final 100 metres to hold off the chasers and win the race. Caleb Ewan sprinted to second place ahead of 2020’s winner Van Aert.
In 2020, Wout Van Aert outgunned Julian Alaphilippe in a two-up sprint on the Via Roma; three years ago it was Alaphilippe himself who finished it off after a decisive move on the Poggio with Peter Sagan, Van Aert, former world champion Alejandro Valverde, Matteo Trentin, Oliver Naesen and Michał Kwiatkowski on his wheel; in 2018 Vincenzo Nibali opened up a gap just before the top of the Poggio and zoomed down the descent in triumphant style; Kwiatkowski out-sprinted Sagan and Alaphilippe in 2017 after holding off the chasing peloton on the descent of the Poggio.
Skillfull descenders with fast legs, those are the riders to watch at La Primavera or who will be the bold rider and the brave rider who can crest the Poggio solo? Who on earth wins is a lottery!
Before writing about the contenders, this year’s Milan-Sanremo has been notable for a number of absentees. The defending champion Jasper Stuyven does not start and former winner and current world champion Julian Alaphilippe isn’t around either.
A former runner-up, sprinter Caleb Ewan also does not start as well as another of his sprinting rivals Sam Bennett. There seems to have been a stomach bug doing the rounds at Tirreno-Adriatico last week, so notable missing names due to illness means some likely favourites won’t feature.
So who is left?
Surely Tadej Pogačar cannot win Milan-Sanremo 2022! The two-times Tour de France champion has absolutely dominated the opening season including a recent triumph at Strade Bianche.
Only on previous appearance at Milan-Sanremo, Pogačar already has Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Il Lombardia in the bag as well as two Tours – an achievement that proves he’s more than just a Grand Tour man but a Monument specialist too.
To ride from 50km out and win Strade Bianche earlier this March, it was an exhibition in class and was actually quite scary to watch.
Will anyone fear Tadej Pogačar? Sanremo is the Monument that probably does not suit the Slovenian the best, but this is Tadej Pogačar we are talking about!
A mental and physical superiority, not since 1996 has a rider won this race from the Cipressa. That seems unlikely but an attack on the Poggio isn’t out of the question. A long range attack can happen and all signs from the UAE team selection suggest this might be the plan.
No Fernando Gaviria, Matteo Trentin or Pascal Ackermann – UAE have gone for a team that is full of panache and attacking quality, Diego Ulissi and Davide Formolo just two riders who I imagine will make life hard for others when fighting for road position.
Tadej Pogačar is currently the king of this new golden era of entertaining cycling. Nothing to lose, something remarkable might be about to happen!
Who can stop Tadej Pogačar? That’s the question every cycling fan is asking right now.
I would argue that 2020 winner Wout Van Aert is certainly the rider who can stamp his authority on the Poggio and either ride solo or beat the best sprinters in the field. While all the talk of domination is on Pogačar, nothing can overlook the way Van Aert has started 2022 – Het Nieuwsblad won and an excellent performance at Paris-Nice capped it all off for Jumbo-Visma. It was such a tremendous sight to see the Belgian almost distance his fellow teammate and eventual Paris-Nice overall winner Primož Roglič on the Col d’Èze.
The only concern I have for Wout Van Aert is how much the climbing is taking out of him. The answer we’ll get at Milan-Sanremo is an easy one. Will the Belgian struggle? If he does then it proves how short-term his early season prep has been ahead of the cobbled classics to come.
How much strength has he got? For me Wout Van Aert starts as favourite and I would also take note of his teammate Primož Roglič who may be riding in a tactical capacity, but if an opportunity arises, I wouldn’t bet against the three-times Vuelta champion from trying something.
While some riders are dropping out, it’s incredible to see Mathieu van der Poel making a return!
We haven’t seen the Dutchman at all in 2022, even I and I think any other cycling fan came to the conclusion that Milan-Sanremo was way too early for van der Poel to get his season back underway!
Major injury doubts for his Spring Classics campaign were apparent, but nevertheless an update from Alpecin-Fenix (hence why my preview is slightly delayed), has confirmed that Mathieu van der Poel has increased his training with no back problems.
Alpecin have rightly played down his chances, stating that this is a planned training ride! Almost 300km for a training ride? That takes something special!
Van der Poel is box office, a real talent and someone who gave us terrific memories at the Tour de France last year, raising his arms aloft for grandfather Raymond Poulidour in yellow.
Can he pull off a shock victory? Why would anyone think not. If victory is achieved on the Via Roma then what an incredible comeback that would be!
My final of selection for five hot favourites to win Milan-Sanremo comes in the surprising form of a debutant.
26-year-old Mads Pedersen wasn’t expected to be on Trek-Segafredo’s start list until Jasper Stuyven fell ill. The plan was for Pedersen to focus on the cobbled classics and let Stuyven challenge for the defence of his Sanremo title.
Yet it isn’t actually the case to suggest that Mads Pedersen is just filling in. The Dane is in good form and in my personal view I thought it was baffling that Trek had originally decided to leave him out of their Milan-Sanremo roster.
Second at GP Marseillaise, then victory twice at Etoile de Bessèges before a huge statement stage win at Paris-Nice, the early season for Mads Pedersen has been encouraging. An uphill drag to take the victory in Dun-le-Palestel ahead of Wout Van Aert, ultimately being the fastest man for the line except for Stages 2 and 5.
A fast rider who can get over hills, I expect Mads Pedersen to be in with a shout. The former world champion has excelled to the top level in world cycling ever since his career beginning second place at Flanders four years ago.
A massive opportunity for the Danish rider awaits…
Any other outsiders for the win?
I was thinking of putting a pure sprinter in my top five but I’ve been inclined not too. I don’t think anyone believes Milan-Sanremo to be a sprinters classic any more.
Then again, if there is one pure sprinter I would back to win the 113th Milan-Sanremo it would be Quick Step’s Fabio Jakobsen. With no 2019 champion Julian Alaphilippe, the Belgian team have got to throw all their eggs in one basket and back the Dutch sprinter who wasn’t even scheduled to start.
A Sanremo debut just like Mads Pedersen, you can expect that Quick Step won’t have this race all their own way. Controlling the race is difficult all the time, but in Quick Step you expect them to do well.
Former Het Nieuwsblad and Grand Tour stage winner Zdeněk Štybar might get a better nod at going for Sanremo glory but there is no reason why Fabio Jakobsen cannot get over the Poggio and sprint to victory.
If he doesn’t then do not for a second think it blights Jakobsen’s chances in making the Tour ahead of Mark Cavendish.
The INEOS Grenadiers are fielding a strong line-up including 2017 winner Michał Kwiatkowski and time trial world champion Filippo Ganna, who could yet make a breakthrough as a Classics riders. Mountain biking Olympic champion Tom Pidcock has had a small setback after missing Strade Bianche but the British rider is on the start line as is sprinter Elia Viviani but if there’s one rider who can sprint as well as climb, it’s Ethan Hayter.
The British rider isn’t being talked about and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Hayter could easily fly under the radar and win Sanremo on debut. Eight wins last year and for 2022 it has started well with fourth overall among a strong field at the Volta ao Algarve.
A difficult week then followed at Paris-Nice where Ethan Hayter found himself spat out the back and away from a decent position on stages where he himself will know suited him to a hilt.
More experience of Milan-Sanremo may be needed but don’t discount him from trying.
A fifth appearance for Søren Kragh Andersen at this race makes him a wise old fox.
The Dane made the select group over the Poggio last year and finished ninth. If only Kragh Andersen had made the move Jasper Stuyven did, then maybe he could have won his first Monument.
Two stage victories at the 2020 Tour de France where one was a downhill attack following a tough uphill section in Lyon – Søren Kragh Andersen has it in his locker to have a go.
Team DSM have also chosen 2015 Milan-Sanremo winner John Degenkolb to line-up alongside the Dane. The German is also a former Paris-Roubaix champion so why not go for a second Milan-Sanremo title? If John Degenkolb wins, he’ll become the first multiple Sanremo champion for Germany since Erik Zabel in 2001.
Another former winner in Intermarché’s Alexander Kristoff starts. The Norwegian took Sanremo in 2014 and other experienced Sanremo riders are ready to try their hand too.
Look out for another former winner in Arnaud Démare riding for Groupama-FDJ, Australian Michael Matthews, who came sixth last year and third in 2020, plus former three-times world champion Peter Sagan is always someone to watch even if we don’t expect the magic to return anytime soon.
Whoever wins Milan-Sanremo 2022 is up in the air. The most likely scenario is a climber and we could yet see the impossible achieved by a rider who looks unbeatable. I’ve mentioned all the top favourites and outsiders without even mentioning Mark Cavendish.
After victory at Milano-Torino in midweek, there are legitimate questions as to why Quick Step haven’t selected the record-equalling Tour de France stage winner. Cav is in the form of his life, why should he not be given a chance?
Milan-Sanremo doesn’t guarantee you anything but despite 293km it does guarantee a huge almighty build-up to a classic race that cannot be missed.
